(光伏发电功率预测与模型分析.docVIP

光伏发电功率预测与模型分析 摘要 近年来，随着对可再生能源需求的日益提高，太阳能光伏发电技术得到了迅速的发展，大规模光伏发电系统的应用也日益广泛起来，但也随之出现了很多问题。由于太阳辐射量与季度、阴晴及昼夜等气象条件密切相关，从而造成了光伏发电系统输出功率的随机性和间歇性的固有缺点，而且考虑到储能技术上的不成熟等因素，当大量的光伏发电系统接入电网时，势必会对电力系统的安全稳定运行和电能质量等带来严峻挑战，从而限制光伏发电产业的发展，所以对光伏发电系统输出功率进行预测对于电力系统运行而言具有非常重要的意义。 本文通过对影响光伏发电功率因素进行分析对目前现有的光伏发电功率预测方法进行分类，并根据统计方法和物理方法为依据，对太阳辐照量预测进行预测和直接对光伏发电系统的输出功率预测两种方法进行阐述和细化对比。再根据各自所使用的数学模型不同将预测方法分为时间序列法、神经网络法、支持向量机方法、回归分析方法和智能预测方法[6]。最后对不同分类的预测方法及相应的数学模型进行分析阐述和对比，说明其适用范围及精确度，并对其可行性进行分析，提出在功率预测中需要解决的问题。 关键词：光伏系统；功率预测；数学模型；方法 Abstrackt \ In recent years, with the demand for renewable energy increasing, solar photovoltaic technology has been rapid development of large-scale photovoltaic power generation system applications are increasingly widespread up, but also will be a lot of problems. Since the amount of solar radiation quarter, Teenage and other weather conditions closely related to circadian, resulting in a power output of photovoltaic power generation system and intermittent randomness inherent shortcomings, and taking into account factors such as energy storage technology immaturity, when a large number PV system connected to the grid ,it must have a safe and stable operation of power systems and power quality pose serious challenges, thus limiting the development of photovoltaic power generation industry, so the output power of the photovoltaic power generation system to predict in terms of the power system operation has a very important significance. Based on the impact of photovoltaic power factor analysis on currently available PV power prediction method for classification, and physical methods based on statistical methods and is based on the amount of solar radiation forecasts and projections directly to the output power of photovoltaic systems forecast describes two methods and refined contrast. And then according to their mathematical models