国外模式气候预测调研.ppt

国外模式气候预测调研 诊断预测室 CPC IRI Japan Hadley APCC EC BOM CPC The current CFS model 1. Atmospheric component The other components of CFS Atmospheric initial condition: NCEP reanalysis-2 The reanalysis-2 is now an operational product and part of the CFS with a 4-day lag The pentad global precipitation analysis will become operational in the near future Ocean initial condition : NCEP GODAS driven by the NCEP reanalysis-2 fluxes GODAS runs in two modes, a 14-day lag final cycle and a 7-day lag CFS analysis Ensemble strategy One 10-month* run per day This strategy makes the most sense for the operational center computer usage CPC can obtain a 20-30 member ensemble at any time 7-day lag GODAS analysis Daily update from the 14-day lag GODAS analysis 14-day lag GODAS is cycled but the 7-day lag one is not cycled CFS Products Monthly mean fields: Atmospheric fields in GRIB form : 2.5 degree global grid of height, temperature, winds (U and V), relative humidity, etc at 17 levels Ocean fields in GRIB form : (2degx1deg) temperature, wind, etc at 40 levels Single level fields in GRIB form : global Gaussian grid of precipitation, 2-meter temperature, 10-meter winds, surface fluxes of heat and momentum, etc CFS product (II) /SL.us008001/SL.opnl/MT.cfs_MR.fcst for real data /SL.us008001/SL.opnl/MT.cfs_MR.clim for corresponding climatology All data will stay on the site for 7 days to allow time to download (rotating 7-day archive) Retrospective forecast productsmonthly and seasonal mean CFS uncorrected forecast climatology Reanalysis-2 and GODAS climatology CFS forecast standard deviations Reanalysis-2 and GODAS standard deviations CFS uncorrected forecast root-mean-square error Plan for the future IRI Climate Forecast Overview The IRI was formed in late 1996 Forecasts of precipitation and air temperature are expressed as probabilities of each of three climatologically equally likely (i.e., tercile-based) categories called below normal, near normal, and above normal