气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍presentationonphysical.ppt

工作进展Progress 国家层面工作计划 National-level work plan 农业（中国农业科学院） Agriculture (CAAS) 草地畜牧业（中国农业大学） Grassland-livestock (CAU) 水资源（南京水利科学研究院） Water resources (NHRI) 农业（中国农业科学院）：Agriculture (CAAS) （1）已经发生的气候变化影响的评价 Phase Ⅰ: Current impact and assessment on climate change 目标1：气候变化历史影响的检测 Objective 1: Detect the historical impact of climate change. 目标2：分析已经发生的气候变化与农业气象灾害损失、水资源、种植制度调整的关系 Objective 2: Analyze the relationship between climate changes which had happened and the loss of agro-meteorological disasters, water resources, cropping systems. 目标3：评估已经采取的适应气候变化措施 Objective 3: Assess adaptation measures which have been taken to adapt to climate change in the past. 目标4：农业灾害风险处置措施评价及选择 Objective 4: Assessment and adoption of agricultural disaster risk disposal measures. 目标5：评估农业对已发生气候变化影响的脆弱性 Objective 5: Evaluate the vulnerability about impact of agriculture on climate change. （2）未来影响的评估 Phase Ⅱ : Impact and assessment for the future 目标1：评估模型的验证 Objective 1: Validation of Assessment Model. 目标2：未来气候变化条件下中国种植区域与主要作物种植界限的变化及种植结构调整战略 Objective 2: Under the conditions of climate change in the future, the changes in crop planting area and main crops planting boundaries and the strategy of planting structural adjustment in China. 目标3：未来气候变化对中国主要粮食作物的影响评估 Objective 3: Assessment that climate change in the future impacts on major food crops in China. 目标4：风险与脆弱性评估 Objective 4: Assessment on risk and vulnerability. 目标5：农业灾害风险管理措施评估及建议 Objective 5: Assessment and proposition on disposal measures of agricultural disaster risk. （3）适应措施和政策建议 Phase Ⅲ: Adaptation and policy recommendations 目标1：我国农业适应气候变化空间区域划分 Objective 1: Space division about agricultural adaptation to climate change in China. 目标2：技术清单编制 Objective 2: Preparation of technical-list. 目标3：农业适应气候变化的政策建议 Objective 3: Policy recommendations about agricultural adaptation to climate change. 目标4：省级适应框架的完善 Objective 4: Complete the adaptation framework of provincial level.