chinaseconomicdevelopmentprospects.ppt

China’s Economic Development Prospects LI Shantong Development Research Center the State Council, P.R.China 2006 China’s economy has been growing at a rate of 9.6% annually since 1978 GDP (1991-2005) GDP Structure (old data) GDP Structure (new data) Share of Agriculture in GDP Share of Secondary Industry in GDP Share of Tertiary Industry in GDP WB’s income standard GNI per capita Per capita GNI was $1100 (exchange rate) in 2003，was 20% of the world average, ranked 134 Per capita GNI was $4980 (PPP) in 2003，was 61% of the world average, ranked 119 Per capita GNI was around $1700 (exchange rate) in 2005 中国人均GDP在世界上的排位依然很靠后 The Challenges of Economic Development in the Future China’s overall integration with global economy will provide better conditions to the economic growth, but may also increase the uncertainty of economic development in the future Capital accumulation will remain the important source for the economic growth, but the changes in population structure and the flow of international capital will make the saving rate and investment rate more uncertain Cont. More progress will be made for the tough reform, but reform may become less effective in improving the re-allocative efficiency of resource The progress in industrialization and urbanization will drive domestic demands to grow, but the cost for economic growth will rise The Challenges of Economic Development in the Future Change in the mode of economic growth will improve the effectiveness in resource utilization, shortage in strategic resource reserve and environmental capacity will be of increasing constraints to economic growth The constrains of natural resources and environment Non tradable resources, such as land, water Tradable resources Environment problems The Challenges of Economic Development in the Future The Challenges of Economic Development in the Future The Challenges of Economic Development in the Future Aging Problem Pressure on employmen