全球资产膨胀与资产评估业的挑战globalassetinflationand.ppt

全球资产膨胀与资产评估业的挑战Global Asset Inflation and Challenge for The Valuation Profession 殷剑峰 Yin Jianfeng 中国社科院金融所，所长助理 IFB of CASS, Assistant General Director 危机前的全球资产膨胀Global Asset Inflation Before Crisis 在这次全球危机前，主要经济体金融资产膨胀的速度远快于GDP增长率 Before the global crisis we are in, financial assets in major developed countries grows at a striking higher speed than the GDP growth. Financial Asset/GDP 金融发展越来越来脱离实体经济Financial Development Is Deviating from What Real Economy Really Needs 以美国为例，在各类金融工具（不含衍生品）中，为金融活动服务的比重不断上升，危机前已经达到了50％。 For instance, in total amount of financial products (excluding derivatives) of U.S., the ratio of products offering service for the financial industry increases quickly and reaches to 50% before crisis. Shares of financial products with different functions in total amount 金融资产膨胀：房地产泡沫Asset Inflation: Housing Market Bubble 以美国居民资产结构为例，随着房价攀升，从2000年开始，有形资产增长快于金融资产，其占比在2005年达到了近40％。 Because of housing price bubble, the ratio of tangible asset to total assets of U.S. household increases from 30% in 2000 to 40% in 2005. 金融资产膨胀：金融股泡沫Asset Inflation: Financial Stock Bubble 受房地产市场的推动，美国金融股票的市值与非金融股票市值的比重从2001年的15％上升到2006年的45％。 Housing bubble contributes significant proceeds to U.S. financial corporations and boosts their stock prices. The ratio of market value of financial corporations to non-financial ones increases from 15% in 2001 to 45% in 2006. 金融资产膨胀：证券化泡沫Asset Inflation: Securitization Bubble 美国 “私营”证券资产占比由80年代的0上升到2007年的12％，资产总额达到了4万5千亿美元。 In U.S, non-GSE securitization develops quickly since 1980s, and amounts to 12% of total securitization market in 2007. 金融资产膨胀促成了美国居民的消费热潮Asset Inflation Promotes Consumption Boom in U.S. Household Sector. 美国居民部门的储蓄率从80年代初的10％左右持续下降到2006年的接近0％；同时，储蓄额也从90年代的3500亿美元持续，在有些季度甚至是负储蓄。 Saving rate of U.S. household decreased to nearly zero in 2006. 金融资产膨胀刺激了银行消费信贷Asset Inflation Stimulates Bank Loan to Household. 对居民的贷款和对居民的住宅按揭贷款占美国银行全部贷款的比重上升到2006年的67％和55％。 In total U.S. bank loan, the ratio of household loan