论内涵报酬(IRR)率初始值的估定.doc

论内含收益率初始估测值有效测定的科学原理 张敦力 （中南财经政法大学会计学院、中国经济与会计监管研究中心 430073 西南财经大学博士后流动站 610074） [摘 要]内含收益率法的日益广泛使用，要求快速、有效测定内含收益率。内含收益率的高低取决于项目有效期的长短、各期现金流量的金额、流向和频次等因素。内含收益率初始值的选择会影响后续测试中所采用的折现率和测试总次数的多少，并进一步影响根据内插法所估测的内含收益率。本文在归纳总结简单项目、标准项目内含收益率测定原理的基础上，通过对比常规项目与特定简单项目、标准项目在现金流量分布特征等方面的异同性，构建测定常规项目内含收益率取值范围的数学模型以及估测内含收益率初始值的数学模型，科学设计并详细说明了快速、有效估测常规项目内含收益率的通用程序。 [关键词]简单项目，标准项目，常规项目，内含收益率内含收益率As more and more extensive usage of IRR approach, the internal rate of return （IRR） on the project is required to be estimated rapidly and effectively. The level of IRR depends on many factors, including, the economic life of projects, the amount, direction and frequency of cash flow in each period. The choice of the initial estimated value of IRR will have effect on the discount rate used in the following tests and the total times of the tests, then, will further influence the Internal rate of return measured by Interpolation method. On the basis of summarizing the basic principle of measurement for the IRR on a simple cash-flow project and a standard cash-flow project, this paper, by comparing the differences of cash-flow distribution characteristics among the normal cash-flow project, the simple cash-flow project and the standard cash-flow project , builds up the mathematic model to measure the scope of the internal rate of return and the mathematic model to estimate initial estimated value of IRR on normal projects, and also, scientifically designs and demonstrates the general rapid and effective process to measure the value of IRR on a normal cash-flow project. 【Key words】Simple cash flow project; Standard cash flow project; Common cash flow project; Internal rate of return（IRR）; Initial value of IRR 作为衡量投资项目在考虑再投资收益条件下可实现收益水平的内含收益率（Internal Rate Of Return，简称IRR，又译“内含报酬率”、“内部收益率”），自20世纪80年代以来，逐渐成为经济管理领域评价项目是否具备财务可行性的一项重要指标（潘飞，1996；吴联生，1996；南京大学国际会计系课题组，1997；孟凡利，王翠春，王健等，1997；林文雄，吴安妮，1998）。令人遗憾的是，现有文献尚未提供快速、有效测定内含收益率初始值的科学方法（［美］詹姆斯. C. 范霍恩等著，郭浩等译，1999；ACCA，2001；［美］斯蒂芬 A．罗斯，伦道夫 W．