中国国际金融有限公司.ppt

“宏观向好+市场因素+盈利增长”推动股价上涨 2006年A/H股市场中银行股走势强于大盘 基本面改善使银行步入长期上升通道 为成长支付溢价：银行股投资策略及个股选择 风险 附录 风险因素 流动性过剩问题使银行贷存比进一步下降，影响银行生息资产净息差 中间业务开展缓慢，手续费收入增长低于预期 由于人民币升值产生的银行汇兑损失超过预期 税制改革最终结果低于市场预期 过度紧缩性货币政策导致经济增速大幅降温，引起对银行贷款质量的担心，拨备压力不降反升 国际资本市场波动导致香港市场资本流出，市场产生抛售，波及国内市场 工行与花旗的对比 数据来源：公司数据，中金公司研究部。×06年按人民币：美元＝1:7.7，07年按1:7.4 08年按1:7计算。 工行在盈利能力、风险管理、业务拓展等方面相比花旗银行还有继续提高的空间。 假设2008年-2010年净利润仍能保持25%的增长，那么2010年的EPS为0.36元。 2010年后我们预计工行净利润增速约为15-20%。如果按照15倍-20倍的市盈率，那么2010年的价格为5.42-7.22元。 中国银行：对冲减少外汇敞口 中国银行通过与人民银行签订Swap的形式减少未对冲外汇敞口。我们估计06年9月底未对冲外汇敞口为150亿美金。 Swap定价时参照美元债券与人民币债券的利差来确定对冲成本。也就是说，一方面银行增加了对冲成本（表现为汇兑损失），另一方面净息差也会扩大，利息收入增加，对净利润的影响不大。 中行的缺陷在于外币业务的盈利能力差、外向型企业的信用风险高。 招商银行：中国的HDFC？ 指数权重 The current banking system is the result of a serial banking reform started from the earlier 90’s. Three policy banks was established to assume policy lending capacity from the four state-owned banks in order to enable them to operate as real commercial entities. Meanwhile, competition among domestic financial institution were introduced to speed up the overall banking reform. Joint-equity banks, incorporated by local governments or large state-owned enterprises, gradually build up their client base in regional market. Now there are 10 nationwide joint-equity banks and 90 city commercial banks which were transform from urban cooperatives. [跟前两页一模一样] The current banking system is the result of a serial banking reform that started in the early 1990’s. Three policy banks were established to assume policy lending capacity from the four state-owned banks in order to enable them to operate as real commercial entities. Meanwhile, competition was introduced among domestic financial institutions to speed up the overall banking reform. Joint-equity banks, incorporated by local governments or large state-owned enterprises, gradually built up their client base in regional markets. There are now 10 nationwide joint-equity banks and 90 city commercial banks which were formerly urban cooperat