《2050中国高比例可再生能源》.pptx

2050中国高比例可再生能源 2050 high penetration RE in China ──风电太阳能储能智能输配电是中国式能源革命的核心国家可再生能源中心 CNREC国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所 ERI of NDRC2014-9-15合作团队 Partnership核心工作组 Core Working Group:技术支持机构 Technical Support:目录Content研究思路与主要结论Study thought and major conclusion能源利用的创新模式Innovation model for energy utilization智能协调发展的电力系统Coordinately developed power system宏观经济影响分析Macro economic analysis2050年高比例可再生能源发展情景暨途径研究2050 high share RE development scenario studyAnti-driving scenario study thoughts: several recommended plan? - High share RE development scenario!“High Share RE” what’s the ratio for “high” share? - “Chinese dream – beautiful China”Ecologic environment?Economic development?倒逼情景研究思路：几个推荐方案？高比例可再生能源发展情景！“高比例”到底有多高或多高才算高？“中国梦 - 美丽中国”生态环境？经济发展？研究亮点暨主要结论Highlight of the study - Major conclusion高比例可再生能源发展情景是一场中国式能源革命：众多能源发展路径中，能够看的最清楚、最现实、最清洁的一条能源发展路径。高度清洁化的能源利用方式：在终端能源消费结构中，电力要占到60-65%。低碳能源发展之路：一次能源供应中，化石能源的比例不超过1/3，可再生能源将在能源供应中占据控制地位。High share RE development scenario means energy reform for China: the most understandable, the most practicable and the cleanest way among all the options for energy developmentHighly cleaned energy utilization:Electricity will take 60-65 percentage in final energy consumption Low carbon energy development:Fossil energy is less than 1/3 primary energy supply, RE will dominate energy supply.研究亮点暨主要结论（二）Highlight of the study - Major conclusion II保障经济稳步增长的能源发展之路：为经济发展中国的能源需求量或一次能源供应量在2040年左右达到峰值。坚持能源可持续的发展之路：要面对现实，政府应尽早决策化石能源逐步退出中国能源供应的主流舞台。煤炭消费总量从2018年（最迟2020年）开始逐步下降支撑转变经济发展方式的能源发展之路：在煤炭、石油等主要化石能源领域，政府应尽早采取措施引导产业发展转移，特别是就业转移。Energy development secures economic steadily growing:For economic development, energy demanding or primary energy supply will reach the peak around 2040.Insisting energy sustainable development:Facing the reality, government should make the decision immediately on fossil energy fading away in Chinese energy supplyCoal consumption should gradually decline from 2018 (earlier than 2020)Energy development support the transformation of econom