基于货币供给视角下的物价水平研究-中国统计教育学会.docVIP

基于货币供给物价水平Research on Price under the Perspective of Currency Supplies Abstract What this article studies is based on the currency supplies angle to research price level, the currency supplies and the price level whether to have the causal relation, and what’s kind of causal relation, the theorists has the big difference. This article take data of our country from 1980 to 2008 year as a foundation, by the currency supplies rate of increment and the price rate of increase and boths cross correlation chart analysis, we know the money supply M2 rate of increment basically with the price rate of increase fluctuation consistent, moreover both the difference change situation is also quite stable; Further, comes the quota using the Granger causes and effects inspection method to describe between them the relations, obtains the currency supplies and between the price level has certain correlational dependence, namely the currency supplies increase can cause the price rise. Otherwise is actually untenable. Describes between this boths short-term and the long-term balanced relations based on the above conclusion using the error correction model quota, and obtains its error correction speed to achieve 89.54%. Moreover, after establishes VAR(2) model ,using the pulse response functional analysis (impulse response function, IRF) to work as this issue for a currency supplies rate of increment impact, the currency supplies rate of increment changing to the price rate of increase changes influence will achieve stably after 5 issues . Key Words: Currency supplies; M2 rate of increment; Granger examination; ECM;IRF 摘 要货币供给物价水平货币供给与物价是否存在因果关系，理论界存在着分歧。本文以我国1980~200年数据为基础，货币供应量M2增长率与物价上涨率，而且两者之差的变化情况也比较稳定通过协整理论，来揭示货币供给与物价稳定之间的长期均衡关系运用Granger因果检验法来定描述它们之间的关系，得到货币供给与物价之间有着一定的正相关关系，货币供给的增加引起物价上涨。基于上述结论运用误差修正模型定量描述这两者之间的短期和长期均衡关系，并且得到其误差修正速度达到89.54%。另外，关键词：货币；M2增长率；Granger因果检验；误差修正模型货币供给是指在某一时点上提供的为社会经济运转服务的货币量，它是一国经济主体持有的通货和活期存款两部分构成。从量上看，就是一定时点上经济生活中所拥有的货币存量。货币供给量的多少主要受到基础货币量，货币乘数和存款创