DecisionMaking.pptVIP

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DecisionMaking

优秀精品课件文档资料 Decision Making * Introduction How can you make decisions? Average the predictions of many people Meet to deliberate and discuss the decision Use the help of a person who you prefer Use some form of a price system where people who are correct are rewarded Put the question on the internet and see how people respond * The Wisdom of the Crowd The average of the crowd is often an excellent predictor. The weight of a horse The amount of money in a jar It “works” when people are more likely to be right than wrong. It does not work when people are more likely to be wrong than right (conventional wisdom is incorrect) Surveys are good in this regard. The problem is that there is no penalty for a wrong answer, so there is no “sorting” in a survey. You can do potentially better. * Committees and Discussion The idea is to gather information in a group discussion rather than averaging. There are serious problems with this approach: If people have similar views, group discussion tends to lead to extreme results. Other views are crowded out. People are reluctant to present their view if they believe that it is in the minority. The majority will tend to disregard a minority view as being incorrect so that new information is ignored. It may therefore be better to ask views individually There is the “Eureka” situation where groups are good: when it takes several people to put together a solution (crossword puzzles) – the solution is seen immediately when it is suggested * Prediction Markets Prices play the role of information in markets. You can get better results when people are sorted based on their own judgment of the value of their information The Iowa experiment Google These are modeled after market economies and the “invisible hand.” * Overview Markets as a metaphor for economics of organizational design Centralization v. decentralization Coordination Decision making, hierarchy, control (next lecture) Job design decision making (next module) Incentives * 1. Or

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