FromVulnerabilitytoRisk从脆弱性到风险.pptVIP

? UKCIP 2007 ? UKCIP 2007 ? UKCIP 2006 ? UKCIP 2006 From Vulnerability to Risk 从脆弱性到风险 Risk Assessment Methodology: 风险评估方法学介绍 An Introduction Tuesday, 07th June 2011 Roger B. Street UKCIP Sarah Opitz-Stapleton ISET and Vulnerability Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity to those variations and its adaptive capacity. 脆弱性: 用来描述系统暴露于气候变化下的特性,尺度和概率, 也包括系统对于气候变化的敏感度和适应能力. System 系统– 个人, 户, 社区, 市区, 基础设施, 经济部门, 生态系统, 省,国家. individual, household, neighbourhood, urban area / city, infrastructure, economic sector, ecological system, province, or nation. - Can be linked and are often dependent on each other 互相依赖 Vulnerability 脆弱性 Exposure – nature and degree to which a system may be exposed to climate variability and change (largely dependent on location) 暴露率: 系统暴露于气候变化和变异的特性和程度 (受所在地影响很大) Sensitivity – degree to which a system is affected (adversely or beneficially) by changes in climate (including variability and extremes) 敏感度: 系统受气候变化(变异和极端事件) 影响的程度(正面/负面影响) Adaptive Capacity – ability of a system to: 适应能力: adjust to climate - including climate variability and extremes, to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences 系统适应气候变化(变异和极端事件) 的能力,也包括降低未来受损程度, 抓住机遇, 处理好气候变化后果的能力 shift strategies, make choices and respond to opportunities in order to manage both direct and indirect climate impacts. 改变战略, 做出选择, 抓住机遇来应对直接和非直接的气候影响. Vulnerability Current vulnerability – function of the current state of the system – the exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity now. 目前的脆弱性: 系统目前的功能—暴露率,敏感度和适应能力 Considers current climate (including variability and trends) and current socio-economic and environmental drivers 考虑目前的气候(包括变异和趋势) 以及目前的社会经济和环境驱动因素 Future vulnerability – established by developing scenarios of how current exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity might change 未来的脆弱性: 通过建立预测目前的暴露率,敏感度和适应能力将如何变化的情景来确立 C