ManagementNeeds气候变化与水资源影响与管理需求.pptVIP

Conclusions结论 Adaptation as development 发展型适应 Climate as one pressure…气候压力 Agriculture as a water bank农业=水资源银行 Rural households as winners losers…who are the losers? 谁才是赢家与输家？ Thank you 谢谢 Beijing, February 2010 r.calow@.uk .uk\wpp * Climate Change and Water:Impacts Management Needs气候变化与水资源：影响与管理需求 Roger Calow Water Policy Programme, ODI 罗杰 Overview概述 The big picture 概括 Irrigation – surface water systems 灌溉—地表水系统 3.Irrigation - groundwater economies 灌溉—地下水节约 4. Conclusions 总结 The most vulnerable?最脆弱群体？ Drivers of change management challenges变化动因管理挑战 Major drivers? 主要动因？ …urbanisation, industrialisation, consumption...with climate change overlay A water ‘crisis’? 水危机？ …who gets what (Q, Q, R) in a variable climate: farms vs cities, upstream vs downstream, environmental vs human Adaptation challenge? 适应挑战？ …mediating between competing claims: range of different scales Agricultural futures? 农业未来？ ...agriculture will lose water. How? Impacts on poorer households? Agriculture irrigation农业灌溉 Two stories: Surface water irrigation (IDs) Development - state sponsored, driven Management - increasingly commercial Groundwater irrigation More recent, increasingly farmer-led opportunistic Boreholes 1949 (0) – today (5M)...concentrated in water scarce north Controllability, affordability...impacts Water withdrawals in Hebei by sector, 1990 – 2003河北省分部门采水量 Source: Hebei provincial WRD Statistical Yearbooks Yellow River flows 1956-2000黄河水流量 Prov. QH SC GS NX IM SA SA HN SD HB Tot Alloc. 1.4 0.1 3.0 4.0 5.9 3.8 4.3 5.5 7.0 2.0 37 Yellow River Allocation Plan（billion m3） Water allocation in the Yellow River Basin 黄河流域水资源配给 Permit 1 Hangjin ID: 0.41 bcm Permits 23 Hetao ID: 4.77 bcm Defined under the YRCC’s Water Allocation Plan (long term) and adjusted under Annual Regulation Plans (annual) Defining and protecting farmers’ rights? Irrigation diversion灌溉 Water allocation – basin to household水资源分配—从流域到用户 Basin Allocation Agreement Province QH SC GS N