WorldEnergyOutlook.pptVIP

? OECD/IEA 2012 ? OECD/IEA 2012 World Energy Outlook 2012 Maria van der Hoeven Executive Director, IEA Warszawa, 14 December 2012 The context Foundations of global energy system shifting Resurgence in oil gas production in some countries Retreat from nuclear in some others Signs of increasing policy focus on energy efficiency All-time high oil prices acting as brake on global economy Divergence in natural gas prices affecting Europe (with prices 5-times US levels) and Asia (8-times) Symptoms of an unsustainable energy system persist Fossil fuel subsidies up almost 30% to $523 billion in 2011, led by MENA CO2 emissions at record high, while renewables industry under strain Despite new international efforts, 1.3?billion people still lack electricity Emerging economies steer energy markets Share of global energy demand Global energy demand rises by over one-third in the period to 2035, underpinned by rising living standards in China, India the Middle East 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 1975 2010 2035 Middle East India China OECD Non-OECD Rest of non-OECD 6 030 Mtoe 12 380 Mtoe 16 730 Mtoe A US oil gas transformation United States oil and gas production The surge in unconventional oil gas production has implications well beyond the United States Unconventional gas Conventional gas Unconventional oil Conventional oil mboe/d 5 10 15 20 25 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035 Iraq oil poised for a major expansion Iraq oil production Iraq accounts for 45% of the growth in global production to 2035;by the 2030s it becomes the second-largest global oil exporter, overtaking Russia 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2012 2020 2035 mb/d North Centre South Iraq oil exports 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2012 2020 2035 mb/d Other Asia Middle East oil to Asia: a new silk road Middle East oil export, by destination By 2035, almost 90% of Middle Eastern oil exports go to Asia; North America’s emergence as a net exporter accelerates the eastward shift in trade 7 United States Korea Japan Europe Chin