中国房地产泡沫分析中国房地泡沫分析产泡沫分析.ppt

The real estate bubble of China What is the real estate bubble An important example:Japan The property bubble in China Reasons and Nagetive impact Forecast and Prevent Part 1 What is the real estate bubble Definition The real estate prices Continuous process Attract new buyers Rising prices and speculative capital （投机资本） The corresponding entity prices （相对应的实体价格） unsustainability不可持续性 how to determine bubble generated: 1.Rate Performance： Sale price is too high Sale prices rose rapidly Sale rising prices in all Actual rents fell Investors are very optimistic about the situation 2.The performance of demand: Sharp growth of house sales Substantial increase in loans A large number of foreign funds poured into the country 3.The performance of supply: Abnormal growth of supply High vacancy rates Part 2 An important example:Japan After the bubble burst Land price declined for 14 years and until 2006.At the end of year 2007,the absolute land price of main cities just equal to the level of 1982. High urbanization rate： Japans’s urbanization rate was increased from 33.1% to 76.7%. The macro policy of yen internationalization： September 22, 1985 The five major economic powers in the world（including the United States, Japan, Germany, Britain and France） reached a Plaza Accord In The Plaza Hotel in New York 日元国际化的宏观政策：1985年9月22日，世界五大经济强国（美国、日本、西德、英国和法国）在纽约广场饭店达成“广场协议”。 In 1989 ,Japanese government suddenly rose the discount rate to 6% Part 3 The property bubble in China Heres Chinas biggest ghost city: Zhengzhou New District  This $19 billion development is packed with blocks of empty houses Governments control One apartment policy Part 4 Reasons and Nagetive impact Internal cause 1.The scarcity of land 2.The special of the real estate 3.Insufficient development in the real estate 4.High expectation of real estate External cause 1.A high saving