1971―2015年玉树地区气温变化特征分析.docVIP

1971―2015年玉树地区气温变化特征分析 　　摘要 为了了解玉树地区1971―2015年气温的变化特征和规律，利用玉树地区近45年平均气温资料，分析了玉树地区平均气温年代际、年际、各季和各月的气候变化特征，并用小波变换方法分析了年、季平均气温的周期变化。结果表明：年平均气温呈升高趋势，其气候倾向率为0.437 ℃/10年，45年来年平均气温升高了2.0 ℃。玉树地区气候变化有明显的季节性变化，春、夏、秋、冬气温升温率分别为0.279、0.397、0.460、0.591 ℃/10年，其中春季的升温率最小，冬季的升温率最大。各月平均气温均呈升高趋势，近45年来各月平均气温增温最大的月份是12月，共增温3.2 ℃，其次是11月；增温最小的月份是10月，其次是5月。玉树地区年平均气温在1997年发生由低到高的突变，显著性水平达到了0.01。四季的平均气温分别在1994年、1994年、1993年以及2002年发生突变。玉树地区的年平均气温以及四季平均气温的主周期为22年左右。 　　关键词 气温；气候变化；小波变换；青海玉树；1971―2015年 　　中图分类号 P467 文献标识码 A 文章编号 1007-5739（2016）20-0179-05 　　Analysis on Change Characteristics of Temperature in Yushu Area from 1971 to 2015 　　WEI Yong-liang HAN Fang-xin YANG Yong-shou 　　（Yushu Meteorological Administration in Qinghai Province，Yushu Qinghai 815000） 　　Abstract Aiming to understand the variation characteristics and regularity of temperature in Yushu area in recent 45 years，the climate change characteristics of decade，annual，seasonal and monthly temperature were analyzed based on the observed data of precipitation during 1971-2015. The periods of annual and seasonal temperature in Yushu area were also analyzed by using the wavelet transform method. The results showed that the annual temperature increased with a tendency of 0.437 ℃/10 a，the increased average temperature was about 2 ℃；in Yushu area，climate change had obvious seasonal variation，the temperature rising rate of spring，summer，autumn and winter were 0.279，0.397，0.460，0.591 ℃/10 a，spring warming rate was the lowest，winter heating rate was the highest. Monthly warming rate was in rising trend，the maximum monthly average increasing temperature appeared in December during the recent 45 years，with a total of raising temperature 3.2 ℃，and the second was in November；the minimum monthly average increasing temperature appeared in October，and the second was in May.Annual average temperature in Yushu area changecl suddenly from low to high in 1997，the significance level reached 0.01. The temperature of spring，summer，autumn and wi