临夏州旱涝的大气环流特征分析.docVIP

临夏州旱涝的大气环流特征分析 　　摘要 根据临夏地区1950―2014年65年的气候资料，研究分析临夏地区大气环流特征与厄尔尼诺、拉尼娜事件发生年与次年，与临夏地区干旱与丰雨年的代际变化关系。结果表明：厄尔尼诺事件发生当年或次年，临夏地区出现干旱的几率较大，为58.3%；而厄尔尼诺出现的当年，临夏地区出现偏涝的几率较小，为12.5%。拉尼娜当年或次年临夏地区多为偏涝年，临夏产生降水偏多的几率较高，为57.9%。离厄尔尼诺事件强的年份时间越近，临夏地区发生干旱几率越大，反之，离厄尔尼诺事件强的年份时间越远，或厄尔尼诺弱的年份，临夏地区发生干旱几率越小；在每个年代的初期，临夏地区干旱几率较大，厄尔尼诺事件出现的几率较大，为52.9%。该结果可为临夏地区旱涝趋势预测，提供较为科学的预测依据。 　　关键词 环流特征；厄尔尼诺；拉尼娜；甘肃临夏 　　中图分类号 P458.2 文献标识码 A 文章编号 1007-5739（2016）14-0232-03 　　Analysis of Atmospheric Circulation Characteristics of Drought and Flood in Linxia Area 　　SUN Yu-lian QI Xiao-long WEI Bo-long BIAN Xue-jun CHEN Si-yu 　　（Linxia Meteorology Bureau in Gansu Province，Linxia Gansu 731100） 　　Abstract Based on the climate datas in Linxia Area from 1950 to 2014，the generational change relationship between atmospheric circulation characteristics and the occurrence of El Nino La Nina years，and intergenerational change in rainy year and drought year were analyzed.The results showed that in El Nino year or next year，the probability of occurrence of drought in Linxia area was 58.3%；Partial water logging occurs in the Linxia area of small probability was 12.5% in an El Nino year.During La Nina year or next year Linxia area was partial flood year，more precipitation and higher risk in Linxia area was 57.9%.From the time of El Nino events intensity closer，Linxia area′s drought probability was greater.On the contrary，the farther away from the time of El Nino events intensity，or El Nino weak year，Linxia area′s drought probability was smaller.At the beginning of each time，drought probability larger in Linxia area，the probability of the El Nino event was 52.9%.The conclusion of the study activities of El Nino and La Nina events，prediction for the trend of drought and flood in Linxia area，provided scientific basis for forecasting. 　　Key words circulation characteristics；El Nino； La Nina；Linxia Gansu 　　临夏州地处甘肃省东南部，区内气候干燥，年均气温5.2～9.4 ℃，年降雨量为273.7～592.7 mm，蒸发强烈，平均蒸发量在1 241.1～1 593.6 mm，年降雨季节分布不均，春季干旱少雨[1]，降雨主要集中在7―9月[2]，属