软硬实力与经济发展的函数关系傅军）课件.pptVIP

软硬实力与经济发展的函数关系 傅 军 北京大学政府管理学院 An outline of the talk Two interpretations of Dao Thomas Kuhn on scientific research Inspirations by great scientists A simple “BMW” formula to structure observations Visual demonstrations of key concepts Empirical testing of theoretical model Implications for the future Where do we draw the line between hierarchy and market?Theoretically, management costs = transaction costs!But how do we know in practice? Implications Implications of the frontier of human knowledge (beyond or within) Different speeds of technology progress (including institutional technologies) Implications for China Implications for the world economy A case of convergence if not for physical constraints Laozi, 4th century BC Niccolo Machiaville, 1461-1527 Galileo Galilei, 1564-1642 Thomas Hobbs, 1588-1679 John Locke, 1632-1704 Issac Newton, 1643-1727 David Hume, 1709-1776 Adam Smith, 1723-1790 Friedrich Hegel, 1770-1831 Immanuel Kant, 1724-1679 Afred Marshall, 1842-1924 Albert Einstein, 1879-1955 John Maynard Keynes, 1883-1946 Werner Haisenberg, 1901-1976 Karl Popper, 1902-1994 Thomas Kuhn, 1922-1996 Ronald Coase, 1910 Douglass North, 1920 道生一 一生二 二生三 三生万物道可道 非常道 What is science? Puzzle, tools, structure, testing GOD DOES NOT PLAY WITH DICE? ㏒ W i ≈ f(B,M) i b ∈ B; m ∈ M Natural endowments are a given and a constant. The most human being can do about nature is to discover, not create. HARD POWER Ask: which part of hard power is a constant and which is a variable SOFT POWER Hegel on spirit: subjective, objective, and absolute. Unlike nature, institutions are a variable about which human beings have created on the basis of ideas. State is a hierarchical institution Without state, “life is nasty, brute and short” How to build a perpetual state? Market is a horizontal institution Non-action vs invisible hand Invisible hand vs pin factory It is ideas, not vested interests, which are dangerous, for good or evil.