英国推出欧盟将拖累全球经济讲义.doc

‘Brexit’ Is Locking In the Forces That Already Haunt the Global Economy 英国退欧将如何拖累全球经济 Sometimes, something bad happens, and it creates huge financial market swings and long-lasting economic ripples. The Sept. 11 terrorist attacks were an example, as was the 2011 Japanese nuclear disaster. 有时候会有糟糕的事情发生，引发巨大的金融市场震荡和持久的经济波动。“9·11”恐怖袭击是一例，2011年日本核泄露灾难也是一例。 But the so-called Brexit is different. 但英国退出欧盟并不一样。 The immediate financial downturn after Britain voted Thursday to leave the European Union resembles the fallout from those disasters. But the other events were largely disconnected from the broader economic currents of their time. They were one-off events, at least in terms of their economic ramifications. 英国于上周四投票决定脱欧后，金融市场立即出现滑坡，与上述灾难性事件的后果颇为类似。但上述其他事件基本与当时更大范围内的经济动态无关。它们是孤立事件，至少就其经济影响而言是这样。 What makes Brexit so concerning is that it accentuates and deepens global forces that have been building for years. So far, governments have been unable to limit any of it. And those forces have self-reinforcing, vicious-cycle dimensions that make it a particularly perilous time for the global economy, even though the type of full-scale panic that followed the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 looks unlikely. 英国脱欧之所以如此令人担忧，是因为它让多年来一直在集聚的全球性力量得到了突显和增强。到目前为止，各国政府还无法遏制这些力量。而且它们具有自我强化、恶性循环的特点，让全球经济面临着极度危险的时刻，尽管2008年雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)破产引发的那种全面恐慌似乎不太可能出现。 Britain accounts for less than 4 percent of world G.D.P. Most people on Earth don’t really have a rooting interest in the exact details of the nation’s trade relationship with the rest of Europe. But its decision to leave the European Union is making more powerful six interrelated forces that already weigh on the global economy: 英国的GDP占世界经济总量的4%。它和欧洲其他国家之间的贸易关系的具体细节，并不会影响世界上大多数人的根本利益。但它脱离欧盟的决定，会让已经在拖累全球经济的六股相关力量变得更加强大。 Low inflation There is a glut of global commodities, particularly oil. There is a glut of labor, with elevated unemployment in much of the world. Inflation has been persistently below the 2 percent mark that ma