广东省能源、环境与经济关系的实证尾研究.doc

广东省能源、环境与经济 关系的实证研究 广东金融学院 赖玉婷、卢淑玲、陈小芬 摘要 我国“十二五”计划明确提出的目标中包括：经济平稳较快发展，结构调整取得重大进展，资源节约环境保护成效显著。这一举措表明我国十分重视能源、环境与经济（3E系统）的可持续发展。经济发达的广东省，既是能源消费大省，又是能源资源小省，是典型的能源输入型地区。随着广东省经济不断发展，能源消费、环境保护与经济增长之间的矛盾变得日趋突出。因此，研究三者之间的相互关系和影响程度，对广东省制定发展战略和政策具有一定的理论指导意义和现实意义。本文在前人对三者研究的基础上，首先建立引入贸易因素的多元线性回归模型，其次通过对三大产业进行协整分析,误差修正和Granger因果关系检验，研究广东省现有经济模式下能源消费与经济发展和环境污染之间的关系，最后提出适合广东省能源、环境与经济可持续发展的政策建议。 关键词：3E系统； 多元线性回归模型； 协整分析； 误差修正 Abstract Our country the twelfth Five-Year Plan puts forward a lot of goals including that economy develops fast yet steadily, structure adjustment has made great progress, conservation of resources and environmental protection worked well. Such an action demonstrates that China pays more attention to the research of the sustainable development among the energy, environment and economy. Developed Guangdong is the province which consumes large amount of energy but owns little of energy resources. It is a typical area that imports energy from other areas. With the constant development of economy in Guangdong province, the contradiction among the consumption of energy, environmental protection and economic growth is getting more and more prominent. Therefore, the study on the relationship and influential degree among the 3E system has certain theoretical and practical significance of the developing strategy and policy in Guangdong province. Based on previous research, the paper firstly establishes the multi-linear regression model including trade factors .Secondly, studies the relationship among the energy consumption, economic development and environmental pollution through the co integration analysis, error correction and Granger causality test in Guangdong’s existing economic mode. Finally, puts forward a policy suggestion that is suitable for the sustainable development of energy, environment and economy in Guangdong province. Keywords：3E system; multi-linear regression model; cointegration analysis; error correction; Granger causality tes  目