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(社会科学中的计算复杂性).ppt

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No Disequilibrium? - So What? Error of “Shock Therapy” driven by “deep level belief” in the Curtain View Deng Xiaoping rejection of the “Shock Therapy” was based on his belief in the importance of disequilibrium behavior “Crossing the River by Feeling for Stones” 摸着手头过河 Evolutionary Computation allows us to model and analyze dynamic disequilibrium behavior An Evolutionary Computational Approach The agent (i.e. firm, investor, government, voter, consumer) isn’t brilliant. The agent tries something. If what the agent tries works well, relative to the agent’s peers, the agent “keeps it up.” If what the agent tries works poorly, the agent copies (a) more successful peer(s) Here the chromosome details the strategy. Example Game Theory Chromosome (I) The “?” are either “C” or “D” The agents query their History of their opponent’s last 3 moves and then do what their chromosome tells them to do Gene # 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 ?Allele ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? History * c d c d c d c d c d c d c d * * * c c d d c c d d c c d d * * * * * * * c c c c d d d d Example Game Theory Chromosome (II) Fight (2) Stay Out Fight (1) Stay Out Enter Enter Stay Out Enter Acquiesce (3) Sample Three-State CS-FSM An Evolutionary Computational Approach Increased Process Validity Outcomes Typically converge on economic answer (Game Theory – Dawid 1999) Some research suggests GA offer better predictions of human behavior (ünver 2001, Tracy 2008, Andreoni Miller 1995 ), Observable Dynamic, Disequilibrium Behavior Where is this going? Theory Driven Data Driven ? Thank you And thanks to Lu Liping for help with the translations! +200m = 2/3 US pop. * “Selection of the Fittest” Mechanism Select the chromosome with the highest fitness (432653) - Fit: 1.2 (234652) - Fit: 5.4 (335421) - Fit: 4.3 (321456) - Fit: 2.1 (113245) - Fit: 5.6 (634522) - Fit: 3.2 (445615) - Fit: 4.1 “Selection of the Fittest” Mechanism Copy the selected chromosome (432653) -