毕业设计 农户日用消费与大额消费的两期模型研究论文.doc

农户日用消费与大额消费的两期模型研究 内容摘要 论文在农户消费与收入的长期均衡关系的基础上构建了两期数学模型，分析了农户家庭在日用品，耐用品,储蓄和生产资料的选择行为机制，以及最优化条件和政策启示。研究发现：预防性储蓄和耐用品消费相互影响，但对投资性消费不构成影响。因此，农户在保证日常消费的条件下，可以优先考虑生产性投资，使其达到最优化。在有余额的情况再下对储蓄和耐用品的消费进行合理分配；利率对农户的耐用品消费，预防性储蓄和投资性消费都有影响。因此为农户提供多种可供选择的投资工具, 增加农户“剩余资金”的回报率, 在农户可供选择的投资工具多样化的前提下, 适当提高真实利率，可以最大化农户的效用。 【关键词】农户 日用消费 大额消费 模型 A Study of Two-period Model Concerning Balance in Rural Households’ Daily Consumption and Big Expenditure Abstract The paper has constructed two issues of mathematical models in the peasant household expense and in the income long-term balanced relations foundation, has analyzed the peasant household family in the daily necessities, the durable goods, the deposit and the producer goods choice behavior mechanism, as well as optimized condition and policy enlightenment. The research discovered: the preventive deposit and the durable goods expend the mutual influence, but expends to the investment does not constitute the influence. Therefore, the peasant household under the guarantee daily expenses condition, may the primordial consideration productiveness investment, enable it to achieve the optimization. In has the remaining sum situation under to deposit again carries on the rational distribution with the durable goods expense; The interest rate to peasant households durable goods expense, the preventive deposit and the investment expends influential. Therefore provides many kinds of may supply the choice for the peasa. 【Key words】 Rural households;Daily consumption; Big expenditure Model 目 录 一、引言…………………………………………………………………………（1） 二、模型综述……………………………………………………………………（2） （一）缓冲储备模型…………………………………………………………… (2) （二）农村居民耐用品消费模型……………………………………………… (2) （三）预防性储蓄模型………………………………………………………… (3) （四）生命周期模型…………………………………………………………… (4) 三、模型构建…………………………………………………………………（4） （一）建模思路………………………………………………………………… (4) （二）模型假设………………………………………………………………… (4) （三）模型……………………………………………………………………… (5) （四）模型的解释………………………………………………………………（7） （1）模型的中心思想…………………