一种评价标准去衡量玩各种类型彩票方案_学位论文.doc

摘要传统型乐透型 将评价标准彻底由抽象的表观形式转变为具体和严格的量化形式，使准确直观地比较各方案的优劣成为可能。 模型科学直观，可信度高，结果准确，可据此给彩票管理部门出谋划策，对彩民用一种平静的心态看彩和买彩，具有极大的现实参考价值。 《英文摘要》 Abstract Keywords : All Probability Formula，AHP Analysis，expect bonuses, PsychologicalTraditional and Lottery-type，Judgment Matrix This paper called for the establishment of an evaluation criterion for playing all types of lottery programs are reasonable, and the rules of the game involving a variety of factors, such as the winners rate of different grades awards, awards, the set of award amount and the attractiveness of people who buy the lottery, etc. We classify the various lottery overall according to the actual situation, using total probability formula of the probability to gradually catch the nature of the problem. At last we come to a probability of winning the specific of lottery. Based on the results, according to lottery psychological analysis, we raise a solution of expect bonuses. And at the same time we establish an AHP model of 运筹学Qualitative indicate through the relative importance of the elements of more layers to establish judgment matrix of the target layer. Come to the various indicators weights. Thereby setting the objective function Evaluation criteria will be thoroughly apparent from the abstract into concrete form and rigorous quantitative form. Enable accurate visual comparison of the pros and cons of each possible. The model is scientific visual, high reliability, accuracy, which can be addressed to the lottery management advice. It is also great practical value for Lottery useing a calm look at the mentality of color and buy lottery. 目录 序言………………………………………………………………………………………………4 第一章 问题…………………………………………………….………………..5 第二章 模型的假设及符号说明……………………………………………假设……………………………………………………….…………………6 §2.2符号说明…………………………………………………………….………6 第三章 模型的建立…………………………………………………………………7 第四章 模型的求解…………………………………………………………………9 §4.1各种彩票类型的概率计算…………………………………………………9 4.1.1 针对传统型 4.1.2 针对乐透型 §4.2层次分析………………………………………………………