经济学院及管理学院优秀 经济影响定量分析中的应用毕设论文.doc

？？？？？？？？？？毕业论文（设计） SARIMA改进模型在突发事件经济影响定量分析中的应用 学 生： 学 号： 专 业： 班 级： 指导教师： ？？？经济与管理学院 二O一O年六月  摘 要 社会重大突发事件往往会对经济产生严重影响，为实现突发事件对经济影响和作用时滞的定量分析，实际工作部门通常采用“同期比”等传统方法测算。而传统方法存在忽略经济序列长期自身发展趋势及突发事件效应的不足。 四川是我国拥有世界自然文化遗产和国家重点风景名胜区最多的省份，旅游业是四川经济支柱产业之一，2007年全省生产总值达10505.3亿元，旅游总收入达到1217.31亿元，旅游收入占GDP比重超过8%。2008年5.12汶川特大地震灾害不仅令四川方向的旅游线路全部暂停，亦使民众于四川旅游的心理形成严重阻障，从而对四川旅游业的发展造成巨大影响。本文以5.12汶川地震对四川旅游业总收入的影响为例，引入SARIMA模型并加以改进，克服了传统方法测算的缺点，实现了对突发事件经济影响的定量精准测算。 关键词：突发事件，SARIMA改进模型，实证分析，突发事件影响因子  ABSTRACT Social important sudden affairs usually have seriously influence to the economy. In order to calculate and analyze the degree of the time lag from the impacts of sudden affairs quantificationally, departments generally introduce traditional methods such like “contemporaneous ratios”, which exist the disadvantage of ignoring the self-development long-term trends of economy and effects of unexpected events. Sichuan province owns the maximum number of natural cultural vestiges and national scenic resort in our country. Tourism is one of the mainstay industries in Sichuan’s economy. Sichuan province received 1,050,530,000,000 dollars as the total output value in 2007, and the tour income attains 121,731,000,000 dollars, having reached an percentage of GDP which is more than 8%. The 5.12 especially heavy earthquake of Wenchuan is not only paused all directional tour circuits in Sichuan, but also makes people produce serious mental obstacle in travelling of Sichuan, then resulted in huge influence to the development of Sichuan’s tourism. Based on the example of Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan, this article measure to introduce and improve the SARIMA model to overcome the defect of traditional methods. It is also expected to accomplish an objective and compositive meterage of the impacts of 5.12 earthquakes of Wenchuan on Sichuan ’s tourism receipts accurately. Key word: Unexpected Events，Improved SARIMA model，Empirical Analysis， Emergency