人民币升值对出口贸易的影响情况及对策 毕设论文.doc

毕业论文 （20_ _届） 人民币升值对宁波出口贸易的影响及对策 摘 要 自2005年人民币汇率制度改革以来，人民币汇率机制显得更加富有弹性。但是近来，由于欧美等西方国家对人民币汇率的逼压不断升级，再加上国内复杂的经济发展情况，人民币升值问题再次成为当前的热点话题。人民币升值引起汇率变化对宁波市的对外贸易产生重要影响，尤其是与出口导向型的企业更是关系密切，自2008年11月起，宁波市连续12个月月度出口同比下降。 本文以宁波出口贸易为对象，采用2005年至2010年的汇率及宁波市出口额季度数据进行定量分析，从人民币升值背景入手，分别从外部压力与内部压力两方面来分析其升值的原因，结果表明人民币升值对宁波市出口贸易短期的效果不是很显著。本文分别从政府宏观调控、出口企业以及行业协会三个层面提出应对人民币升值的对策建议，例如政府应有效扩大内需，谨慎地进行汇率调整，企业应积极调整产业结构，实现出口市场多元化发展，行业协会需要充分发挥企业和政府间的桥梁作用等。 关键词：人民币升值；出口贸易；影响；对策建议Abstract Since the 2005 year’s reform of RMB exchange rate system, the RMB exchange rate mechanism has become more flexible. But recently, with the force of Europe and other western countries, the exchange rate of RMB pressing escalated, and coupled with the complex economic development situation of the domestic, RMB appreciation once again become a hot topic. The exchange rate changes caused by RMB appreciation, have an important impact on foreign trade of Ningbo, especially export-oriented enterprises is closely related. Since the November of 2008, the monthly exports of Ningbo had fallen continuously for 12 months year-on-year. In this paper, taking Ningbo export trade as the object, adopting the data of exchange rates and export volumes of Ningbo from 2005 to 2010 to quantitative analysis, from the background of the appreciation of RMB, respectively from external pressure and internal pressure to analyze both the causes of their appreciation. The results show that the RMB appreciation on the short-term effect of Ningbo export trade is not very significant. This paper is written separately from the government regulation, export enterprises and industry association to put forward countermeasures and suggestions response to RMB appreciation. For example, the government should effectively expand domestic demand, adjusting the exchange rate carefully; Enterprises should actively adjust the industrial structure, diversifying the export markets; Industry association need to play a role of bridge between e