ERL GLOBAL CROP PRODUCTION.pdf

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ERL GLOBAL CROP PRODUCTION

Global potential to increase crop production through water management in rainfed agriculture This article has been downloaded from IOPscience. Please scroll down to see the full text article. 2009 Environ. Res. Lett. 4 044002 (/1748-9326/4/4/044002) Download details: IP Address: 37 The article was downloaded on 19/07/2013 at 17:11 Please note that terms and conditions apply. View the table of contents for this issue, or go to the journal homepage for more Home Search Collections Journals About Contact us My IOPscience IOP PUBLISHING ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS Environ. Res. Lett. 4 (2009) 044002 (9pp) doi:10.1088/1748-9326/4/4/044002 Global potential to increase crop production through water management in rainfed agriculture Stefanie Rost1, Dieter Gerten1,4, Holger Hoff1,2, Wolfgang Lucht1, Malin Falkenmark3 and Johan Rockstro?m2,3 1 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Research Domain of Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities, Telegraphenberg A62, 14473 Potsdam, Germany 2 Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), Kra?ftriket 2B, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden 3 Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden E-mail: gerten@pik-potsdam.de Received 23 February 2009 Accepted for publication 25 September 2009 Published 9 October 2009 Online at /ERL/4/044002 Abstract This modeling study explores—spatially explicitly, for current and projected future climate, and for different management intensity levels—the potential for increasing global crop production through on-farm water management strategies: (a) reducing soil evaporation (‘vapor shift’) and (b) collecting runoff on cropland and using it during dry spells (‘runoff harvesting’). A moderate scenario, implying both a 25% reduction in evaporation and a 25% collection of runoff, suggests that global crop production can be increased by 19%, which is comparable with the effect of current irrigation (17%). Climate change alone (three climate models, SRES A2r emissions and population, constant

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