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Grey system studies on agricultural ecoengineering inthe taihu lake area jiangsu china
~. , , , . ~ . . - ~
ELSEVIER Ecological Engineering 7 (1996) 235-245
E C O L O G I C A L
E N G I N E E R I N G
Grey-system studies on agricultural ecoengineering
in the Taihu Lake area, Jiangsu, China
Shuqing An a,*, Jingsong Yan b, Xusheng Yu c
~ Department of Biological Science and Technology, Nanjing UnirersiO, Nanjing 210093, China
h Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Academia Sinica, Nanjing 210008, China
c Department of Land and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China
Received 17 November 1995; revised 22 April 1996; accepted 3 May 1996
Abstract
A grey-system model was used to simulate and predict changes of nine key parameters in an
agro-ecosystem and energy efficiencies of the crop subsystem in the area. The model, which
satisfactorily fitted original data, predicted that population, energy production by crops in sum or
per hectare, energy production by fishery, and energy input through machinery would increase,
but that cropland area, energy production by livestocks and energy input through pesticides and
herbicides would decrease. Energy input through fertilizers was predicted to fluctuate in the
future. Energy efficiency, total and net energy allocation for people, would slow down in next ten
years as the replacement of traditional agriculture by petroleum agriculture takes place. The grey
catastrophic prediction model showed that two low energy production years or disaster years
would be expected before year 2050, although the trend of the production would increase in
future. The grey correlation coefficient showed that disaster years would emerge because short
frost-free days, especially low temperature in the spring, would happen in those years.
Keywords: Compound ecosystem; Energy flow: Grey model
1. Introduct ion
Having total area of 17600 km 2 and land area of 12200 km 2, Taihu Lake area
(including 12 counties) in Jiangsu, located 31-32°N, 119°81 - 120°36E, is an important
traditional
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