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Harvard School of Public Health Authors
Trends in Smoke Nicotine Yield and
Relationship to Design Characteristics
Among Popular U.S. Cigarette Brands
1997-2005
A Report of the
Tobacco Research Program
Division of Public Health Practice
Harvard School of Public Health
Authors
Gregory N. Connolly, DMD MPH
Hillel R. Alpert, ScM BSc
Geoffrey Ferris Wayne, MA
Howard Koh, MD, MPH
January, 2007
Supported by American Legacy Foundation
and National Cancer Institute
2
ABSTRACT
Objective: We sought to determine whether smoke nicotine yields of cigarettes would
show an overall increase over time or an increasing trend limited to any particular market
category (e.g. full flavor vs. light, medium (mild), or ultralight; mentholated vs non-
mentholated), manufacturer, or brand family or brand style, and smoke nicotine yields
would be associated with measurable trends in cigarette design.
Methods: Machine-based measures of smoke nicotine yield as well as measures of
cigarette design features related to nicotine delivery (ventilation, nicotine content in the
tobacco rod, and number of puffs), and market category descriptors were obtained from
annual reports filed with the Massachusetts Department of Public by tobacco
manufacturers for the years 1997-2005. Trends in smoke nicotine yield and relationship
with design features and market parameters were analyzed with multilevel mixed effects
regression modeling procedures.
Results: A statistically significant trend was confirmed in increased smoke nicotine
yield of 0.019 mg per cigarette (1.1%) per year over the period 1997-2005 or 0.029 mg
per cigarette (1.6%) per year over the period 1998-2005. The increasing trend was
observed within all major market categories (mentholated vs. non-mentholated and full
flavor vs. light, medium (mild), or ultralight). Smoke nicotine yield was positively
associated with nicotine concentration in the tobacco and number of puffs per cigarette,
both of which also showed increasing trends during t
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