SoS Paper Mahata et al Risk Profile for NASA.pdf

Risk Profile for NASA’s Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) System Mahata, Boyle, Somers Page B 1 01/22/2010 Risk Profile for NASA’s Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) System Paul Mahata, Ph.D. (Systems and Software Consortium) Jon Boyle, Ph.D. (ASRC Management Services) Ivan Somers, Ph.D. (GTP Associates) 1. Executive Summary This paper provides the results of a three-step modified Delphi technique that was used to develop the risk profile for NASA’s Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) system, which is now being developed to have the capability to travel to International Space Station (ISS), Moon, Mars and beyond. The authors used an Electronic Meeting System (EMS) at DAU, Ft. Belvoir, VA to achieve the final round of consensus among space technology experts, internal and external to NASA. This paper exemplifies how one can identify risks up front on a complex, multi-discipline, multi-year, and multi-Billion dollar program that is heavily dependent on System of Systems (SoS). 2. Background 2.1 Vision for Space Exploration: On January 14, 2004, the President of the United States of America announced at the NASA headquarters a new vision for the civil space program based upon exploration of Moon, Mars, and beyond (Figure 1). The vision for space exploration (VSE) is simply: ? Extend humanity’s presence across the solar system, starting with a return to the moon by the year 2020, followed by journeys to Mars and beyond. This bold vision can be translated to the following specific goals, as stated by the President (Ref 1): ? “Our first goal is to complete the International Space Station by 2010”… ? “Our second goal is to develop and test a new spacecraft, the Crew Exploration Vehicle, by 2008”… ? “Our third goal is to return to the Moon by 2020”… ? “With the experience and knowledge gained on the moon, we will then be ready to take the next steps of space exploration: human missions to Mars and to the worlds beyond” The President f