The Backwards Arrow of Time of the Coherently Bayesian Statistical Mechanic.pdf

The Backwards Arrow of Time of the Coherently Bayesian Statistical Mechanic.pdf

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The Backwards Arrow of Time of the Coherently Bayesian Statistical Mechanic

a r X i v : c o n d - m a t / 0 4 1 0 0 6 3 v 2 [ c o n d - m a t .s t a t - m e c h ] 8 N o v 2 0 0 4 The Backwards Arrow of Time of the Coherently Bayesian Statistical Mechanic Cosma Rohilla Shalizi Center for the Study of Complex Systems, 4485 Randall Laboratory, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA? Many physicists think that the maximum entropy formalism is a straightforward application of Bayesian statistical ideas to statistical mechanics. Some even say that statistical mechanics is just the general Bayesian logic of inductive inference applied to large mechanical systems. This approach identifies thermodynamic entropy with the information-theoretic uncertainty of an (ideal) observer’s subjective distribution over a system’s microstates. In this brief note, I show that this postulate, plus the standard Bayesian procedure for updating probabilities, implies that the entropy of a classical system is monotonically non-increasing on the average — the Bayesian statistical mechanic’s arrow of time points backwards. Avoiding this unphysical conclusion requires rejecting the ordinary equations of motion, or practicing an incoherent form of statistical inference, or rejecting the identification of uncertainty and thermodynamic entropy. PACS numbers: 05.20.-y,02.50.Tt,05.70.Ln,89.70.+c Keywords: Arrow of time; Bayesian statistics; Koopman operator; maximum entropy principle Recent years have seen renewed interest in connections between physics and statistics [1]. Of particular inter- est, naturally, has been the connection between statisti- cal mechanics and statistical inference. The subjectivist approach to statistical mechanics, ably advocated in re- cent times by Jaynes [2] and his school, holds that prob- abilities represent degrees of belief; specifically, the prob- ability of a microstate is the degree to which an ideal observer should believe the system is in that state, given the evidence available, and the entropy of the system is that obse

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