重庆市双桥物流园区需求预测研究详解.docx

毕业设计（论文）题目 重庆双桥物流园区的需求预测研究 摘 要：现代物流业作为经济学上的所提出的“第三利润源”在上世纪六七十年代起开始受到重视，随着经济全球化的进一步发展，物流业也在全球范围内的兴起。物流业作为基础产业和先导产业，相关的物流研究也越来越成为各国研究的重点。物流园区作为物流业发展的重要基础设施，同时其作为物流产业聚集平台的作用同样日益凸显。但是，相对于物流园区建设更为重要的是物流园区的前期规划，现在我国普遍存在着重视园区建设而忽视前期规划的问题，其相关研究较国外发展也是较为落后。因而，为了发挥物流园区作为产业聚集平台的重要作用，前期进行科学合理的规划自然是必不可少的准备工作。正因为如此，作为物流园区规划过程中关键一环的园区物流需求预测研究对于物流园区的规划研究具有重要的意义【1】。 首先，本文在第一章通过理论研究重点阐述了与物流园区相关的概念，随后提出了一般性物流园区规划的基本流程，并重点阐述和分析了物流需求预测在物流园区规划中的重要作用以及进行物流需求预测的思路和方法。在随后的章节中，提出了利用指数平滑预测法对物流园区的物流需求进行预测，并以重庆市双桥物流园区为例，进行实例研究得出结论。 本文旨在对物流园区规划中的关键一环即物流园区的需求预测进行研究，同时以重庆市双桥物流园区为例，对双桥物流园区的服务范围、未来物流需求进行研究计算【2】。 关键词：物流园区；物流需求；指数平滑法；需求预测  The Study of Logistics demand for ShuangQiao Logistic Park Abstract：Modern logistics industry as the proposed third source of profit in the economic s begin to get valued in the last century 60s. Along with the further development of economic globalization, the logistics industry is also rising globally. Logistics industry as the basic industry and the pilot industry, logistics research is increasingly becoming the focus of research in various countries. Logistics Park as an important infrastructure for the development of logistics industry, and as the role of the logistics industry gathering platform is increasingly prominent. However, compared to the logistics park construction the scientific preliminary planning of Logistics Park is more important。Now, the problem that we pay more attention to the construction of the park than the early planning of the Logistics Park. Its related research is relatively backward than foreign development. In order to play the important role of the logistics park as the platform of industry gathering, it is essential to plan the scientific and rational plan in the early stage. Given that the logistics demand forecast of the key part of Logistics Park planning process is of great significance for logistics park planning and research. First of all, this paper in the first chapter, through the focus of theoretical research descri