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The Quantificational Evaluation of Shanghai World Exposition In 2010 Impact
Abstract
In this paper,we undertake the quantificational evaluation form the economic aspects on the impact of Shanghai World Exposition.We divide the economic aspects into two stages to analysis.The first stage is the previous World Exposition stage(from China successfully bids for the Shanghai World Exposition to World Exposition ending).The second stage is post World Exposition.We mainly analysis the receive of national tourism,the infrastructure construction of the World Exposition throwed in , the foreign economic and trade volume and total industrial production on the first stage.We use the regression analysis and accumulative building method to forecast the correlational data about four factors.We handle the correlational data from 2002 to 2009 about four factors to predict the correlational data about four factors that take no account of Shanghai World Exposition.We compare the correlational data about four factors with these taken no account of Shanghai World Exposition.We define the impact proportion factor to scale the impact of the World Exposition upon the severalty factor.We use one degree exponential smoothing method and fit method confirm four factor’ s weight.We define the impact strength to build the impact strength model. The impact strength is impact proportion factorcorresponding weight summation.We solve out the impact strength of Shanghai World Exposition .It is 1.1818.From the maintenance of World Exposition’s building and follow-up tour,we quantificationally predict the expenditure of maintenance.It is 0.978 billion in 2011. We refer to the Kunming horticultural Exposition’s follow-up impact on trade to analysis Shanghai World Exposition’s follow-up impact on trade situation.
Key word:impact strength;quantificational evaluation; impact proportion factor
Restatement
The world expo 2010 Shanghai is the first held in China. To host the world expo will have a great econo
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