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2008-Real-time data-based risk assessment for hazard installations storing flammable gas
Real-Time Data-Based Risk
Assessment for Hazard
Installations Storing
Flammable Gas
Zhou Jianfeng,a Chen Guohua,a and Chen Qingguangb
aInstitute of Safety Science and Engineering, College of Industrial Equipment and Control Engineering,
South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510640, China; mmghchen@ (for correspondence)
bGuangdong Institute of Safety Science and Technology, Guangzhou 510620, China
Published online 18 January 2008 in Wiley InterScience (). DOI 10.1002/prs.10247
Large quantities of dangerous substances, especially
explosive or flammable gases, are processed or stored
in hazard installations. A risk-based warning/early-
warning system for major hazard installations is very
important for the prevention of major accidents. The
real-time data-based risk and the risk factors are ana-
lyzed in this article, and a fuzzy logic based real-time
risk assessment method is proposed. On the basis of
fuzzy logic theory, the likelihood of an accident occur-
rence and the consequence of the accident can be
assessed, and the risk value or risk level can be eval-
uated by utilizing a risk matrix. The method takes
advantage of the real-time data acquired from the
safety monitoring system so that the change in the risk
can be determined as the accident develops. The risk
assessment simulation of a vapor cloud explosion
(VCE) accident caused by gas leaked from an liquefied
petroleum gas tank is performed. It is shown that the
risk of a VCE accident varies with the change of the
monitored data. 2008 American Institute of Chemi-
cal Engineers Process Saf Prog 27: 205–211, 2008
Keywords: hazard installation; real-time risk;
fuzzy assessment
INTRODUCTION
Large quantities of dangerous substances, espe-
cially explosive or flammable gases (including lique-
fied gas), are processed or stored in hazard installa-
tions. If the substance accidentally leaks out, it will
have a strong impact on the surrounding area.
To improve the safety management of hazard
installations a
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