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A predictive risk index for safety performance in process industries未打印
Corresponding author: Tel.:
6011061.
E-mail address: jrc@ccms.nkf
0950-4230/$ - see front matter #
doi:10.1016/j.jlp.2004.03.001+8862314; fax: +886-7-
.tw (J.-R. Chen).
2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries 17 (2004) 233–242
/locate/jlpA predictive risk index for safety performance in process industries
Jenq-Renn Chen a,, Yao-Tai Yang b
a Department of Safety, Health and Environmental Engineering, National Kaohsiung First University of Science Technology, 1 University Road,
Yenchau, Kaohsiung, 824, Taiwan
b Kaohsiung Monomer Corporation, Tashe, Kaohsiung, 823, Taiwan
Received 14 October 2003; received in revised form 16 December 2003; accepted 1 March 2004Abstract
A novel predictive risk index (PRI) is proposed as an indication of safety performance in the process plant. The predictor is
developed based on a regular observation of unsafe acts and conditions. The unsafe observation results are quantified by a simple
rating based on estimates of probability of danger (PD), frequency of work exposure (FE), number of persons at risk (RN) and
maximum of probable loss (MPL). The rating are combined according to the following geometric average to give the risk index
(RI):
RI ?
ffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
PD FERNMPL4
p
The PRI is then defined as the moving average of 15 consecutive observations. A database of unsafe observations from a petro-
chemical plant was analyzed and compared to recorded incidents. For PRI value stay persistently below three, the plant is in
safely managed condition and incident rarely occurs. For PRI value greater than three, the plant is in warning condition and inci-
dent may occur. The PRI trend successfully predicts the occurrence of several incidents in the plant. Three modes of incident
occurrence were also identified. It is believed that the present PRI w
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