ABSTRACT EVALUATION OF ELECTRONIC CASH THREAT SCENARIOS USING MICRO DYNAMIC SIMULATION.pdf

Proceedings of the 1998 Winter Simulation Conference D.J. Medeiros, E.F. Watson, J.S. Carson and M.S. Manivannan, eds. EVALUATION OF ELECTRONIC CASH THREAT SCENARIOS USING MICRO DYNAMIC SIMULATION Kazuo Ezawa Gregory Napiorkowski Mariusz Kossarski Mondex International Limited Atlantic Technology Center Suite 109, 100 Campus Drive, P.O. Box 972 Florham Park, New Jersey , 07932-0972, U.S.A. ABSTRACT This paper discusses the evaluation of the electronic cash counterfeit threat scenarios using micro dynamic simulation. This modeling technique provides information needed for the quantification of economic risk exposure in conjunction with other analytical tools. It also allows the evaluation of the effectiveness of various on-chip risk management capabilities. And by generating test data, it allows the assessment of the effectiveness of the host system based counterfeit transaction detection models. 1 INTRODUCTION The quantification and evaluation of a hypothetical threat caused by an introduction of a counterfeit value is critical to the management of a smart card based electronic cash scheme. A critical role is played by a micro dynamic simulation model of an electronic cash economy. To substitute for the non-existing actual data on the latter, the model generates the electronic transaction details in the laboratory-like setting. In other words, this type of model allows us to conduct experiments by injecting streams of counterfeit value into the scheme and observing how efficient different risk management techniques are in dealing with the problem. The simulation results can be used to assess the effectiveness of various on-chip as well as off-chip (i.e. host system based) risk management capabilities. In general, a threat scenario is viewed as a “business case” from both the counterfeiters’ and electronic cash issuer’s perspectives. Varius threat scenarios are assessed as an illustration. The paper is organized as foll