造船企业船东风险问题研究_毕业设计.doc

摘 要 船东风险是造船企业面临的最主要的风险之一。船东风险由于持续时间长、发生的后果对船企造成的损失大，并且由于受航运市场波动的影响具有很大的不确定性，因此船东风险问题应该受到决策者的重视。 本文深入分析了造船企业面临的船东风险问题，包括造船企业面临的风险体系、船东风险的主要行为表现以及船东风险的影响因素；在船东风险评估体系的基础上，应用模糊层次分析法建立船东风险评估模型，通过船东风险评估模型，对国内D船厂的国外船东T和船东M进行了风险评估，并对二者的风险进行了比较分析；建立船东风险控制体系，对造船企业的船东风险控制提出了若干建议。最后，结合船东风险分析、船东风险评估和船东风险控制，初步建立船东风险管理机制。 本文对于船东风险问题的研究，主要的创新点体现在两个方面：一是通过船东风险评估模型将对船东风险的模糊判断，转化成风险数值，以定量直观的形式将船东风险及影响船东风险的内外部特征的评估值呈现出来，为船厂对船东风险分析与接单决策提供技术支持；另一方面，建立船东风险控制体系及船东风险管理机制，为造船企业的船东风险管理提供技术支持和决策参考。 关键词 船东；风险；造船；模糊层次分析法Abstract Shipowners’ risk is one of the most important risks that shipbuilders face. Because of its long duration, serious consequences if happens and great uncertainty affected by fluctuation of shipping market, the issue of shipowners’ risk should be paid much attention by decision maker of shipbuilders. This paper analyses the issue of shipowners’ risk for shipbuilder deeply, including the risk system that shipbuilders face, the behavioral expression and influence factor of shipowners’ risk; setting up the risk assessment model of shipowners through F-AHP taking into account pre-established shipowner’s risk structure; measuring the risks of shipowner T and shipowner M of domestic shipyard D, then making the relative evaluations; setting up the risk control system and giving some recommendations about risk control of shipowners for shipbuilders. Finally, setting up the risk management mechanism of shipowners taking account into the risk analysis, risk assessment and risk control of shipowners. There are two innovation points in this paper’s research on issue of shipowners’ risk: one is the conversion from vague judgments about shipowners’ risk to risk value applying the risk assessment model of shipowners, showing the shipowners’ risk and evaluation scores of internal and external factors that affect shipowners’ risk intuitively, providing technical support for risk analysis of shipowners and order taking strategy. The other is the establishment of risk control system and