住房贷款的可行性分析.doc

中文题目： 住房贷款的可行性分析 内容摘要 　　改革开放30多年来，我国房地产市场得到了迅速的发展和壮大，取得了瞩目的成就，特别是“十一五”、“十二五”期间，我国的房地产业成为国民经济的新增长点和启动内需的消费热点，对拉动国民经济增长，保持国民经济持续、快速、健康发展起到了重要作用。商品房的购买成为了人们的第一大消费支出。由于支出巨大，而且大多面临贷款的压力，消费者个人又需要承担一定的风险，所以买房关乎着每一个家庭的未来。买房决策的正确与偿还贷款过程中的不确定因素的有着紧密的联系。为减少决策的失误，提高决策的科学性，就要求在最终决策确立项目之前，首先要对还款方案进行比较，选择更加适合的方式；其次，要对项目中的影响因素进行预测及敏感性分析，尽量在更加适合的时机做出决策，以提升决策价值。 　　本文选取了商业贷款和公积金贷款这两种最普遍的贷款方式，计算当前天津市场上购买100平米商品房，首付30%，30年还款的每月还款额；接着使用技术经济分析预测的方法，从定量和定性两个方面分析了利率及房价等因素；最后对一些不确定因素的敏感性进行对比，得出相关结论。 关键词：可行性分析；敏感性分析；商业贷款；公积金贷款Abstract 　　More than 30 years of reform and opening-up, our country real estate market got rapid development and expansion, has made remarkable achievements, especially in the period of 11th five-year plan, twelfth five-year period, Chinas real estate industry become a new growth point of national economy and start the domestic demand of consumption, to drive the national economy growth, maintain sustained, rapid and healthy development of national economy played an important role. Commercial housing purchase has become peoples first big consumer spending. Because the expenditure is huge, and largely came under pressure from the loans and individual consumers need to take some risks, so to buy a house is about every family in the future. In the process of buying decision right and to repay the loan uncertainty factors are closely linked. In order to reduce the error of decision-making, and improve the decision-making more scientific, requires that before the final decision to establish project, first of all, the proposal is used in the comparison, choose more suitable way; Second, to the forecast of influence factors of the project and sensitivity analysis, in a more appropriate time to make a decision as far as possible, in order to enhance decision-making value. 　　This article selects the commercial loan and accumulation fund loan that two of the most common way to calculate the current tianjin to buy 100 square meter commercial housing, 3