气候变化对湘江流域降水气温和蒸发的影响变化预测气候变化对湘江流域降水气温和蒸发的影响变化预测.pdf

Journal of Water Resources Research 水资源研究, 2013, 2, 70-75 doi:10.12677/jwrr.2013.21011 Published Online February 2013 (/journal/jwrr.html) Climate Change Impact on Hydro-Climate Variables in * the Xiangjiang Basin 1 1 2 2 Yi Xiao , Shaohua Tang , Hua Chen , Linjuan Hu 1Department of Water Resources of Hunan Province, Changsha 2 State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan Email: 7100120@ Received: Nov. 27th th th , 2012; revised: Dec. 11 , 2012; accepted: Dec. 27 , 2012 Abstract: Based on the collection of historical hydro-climate data, such as precipitation, temperature and evaporation in the Xiangjiang Basin, the relationship between the local hydro-climate variables and large scale climate predictors of GCM has been established by using Automated Statistical Downscaling model. The future change of those hydro-climate variables was predicted by using this technical frame during the pe- riod of 2010-2099 in this basin. The results showed that temperature and evaporation will increase signifi- cantly, while precipitation has no significant change trend in future. Keywords: Climate Change; Xiangjiang Basin; Statistical Downscaling Method; Temperature; Precipitation; Evaporation 气候变化对湘江流域降水气温和蒸发的影响变化预测* 1 1 2 2 肖 义 ，唐少华 ，陈 华 ，胡林娟 1 湖南省水利厅，长沙