美赛论文改进中 5.doc

Team # 30116 Page PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT26 of 24 For office use onlyT1________________T2________________T3________________T4________________Team Control Number 30116?Problem Chosen AFor office use onlyF1________________F2________________F3________________F4________________ 2014 Mathematical Contest in Modeling (MCM) Summary Sheet (Attach a copy of this page to each copy of your solution paper.) Type a summary of your results on this page. Do not include the name of your school, advisor, or team members on this page.  暂时不定 Abstract 交通被喻为国家的“动脉”，高效的交通系统是经济增长的必要保证。交通系统的规划、设计和运作要求有能反映交通现象基本特征的交通模型。在众多的交通流模型中，元胞自动机交通流模型因其简单有限性、并能在计算机上方便实现而备受注目. 本文在交通流NaSch模型的基础上，增加车辆的换道规则和超车规则后构建的，考虑车辆行驶中安全因素的影响，在原有模型的基础上引入了安全驾驶规则，避免高速车辆追尾发生的可能 ，建立了考虑安全因素的双车道元胞自动机的新模型。通过在周期性条件下对新模型的数值模拟，对本文模型与STCA模型的流量一密度基本图进行全概率的变化对流量的影响与车辆的换道率。 在此基础上建立了三车道有管制交通系统的CA交通流模型，考虑车辆减速概率、换道概率对车流的影响。通过计算机模拟研究该模型的交通流特性，为管理三车道的道路系统提供了一定的参考依据车道上车辆自左向右运动，由于车辆之间的相互影响，车辆具有的速度将分布于 之间的值。在模型的演化过程中，把每一演化时步分成行进和换道两个步骤。此模型解决了在多种条件下的车流量问题。 本论文的研究对交通组织和管理均具有重要的理论和实践意义。 Keywords:交通流NaSch模型 安全因素 三车道有管制交通系统 1 Introduction As Chinese illustrious philosopher Lao Tzu said “the highest excellence is like that of water. The excellence of water appears in benefiting all things, and in its occupying, without striving (to the contrary)’’ However, as the unprecedented tide of agriculturalization, industrilization based on information industry and overall urbanization. The excellence of water plays its vehemency, boisterousment and mischief in a theatrical manner. Apart from anything else, China undergoes its incalculable moods, such as water resources has the characteristics of less average per capita possession，uneven regional distribution，great variation in a year and between years，unmatched and insufficient water for people’s daily life. It’s out of question that enhance integrated management of water resources，improve utilizat