出口结构对出口的影响【外文翻译】.doc

本科毕业论文外文翻译 原 文： THE IMPACT OF THE COMPOSITION OF EXPORTS ON EXPORTPERFORMANCE 出 处： DE ECONOMIST 135, NR. 2, 1987 作 者： S. BRAKMAN AND C.J. JEPMA 1 .INTRODUCTION The issue of what determines countries export share in international trade has often been the subject of empirical analysis. Often such an analysis is carried out by using simple single-equation models focusing on substitution of demand. Common practice thereby is to concentrate on the calculation of the elasticity of substitution between two exporters (usually the country concerned and a group of competitors) in a third market, simply by taking the quotient of the export demand equations for the two exporters. In such a framework competitiveness is crucially linked with relative prices. Reality, however, is far more complicated. The single-equation models therefore have been subject to severe criticism for their simplicity and the a priori assumptions which have to be made. Most criticisms were of an econometric nature (starting from Orcutt, 1950); however, theoretical doubts have been expressed as well. This resulted in some extensions of the model, e.g. the introduction of supply factors, the incorporation of non-price factors, and the impact of the business cycle. A general weakness of the traditional trade models is still lack of attention to the impact of the differences in the composition of the exports between competing countries on their relative export performance. Nevertheless Tyszynski (1951) did separate the impact of the composition of exports and competitiveness on export performance; others followed, but the precise relationship between the composition of exports and competitiveness remained unclear. The major contribution to this issue has been made by Ooms (1967), but received little attention. Also hardly any attention has been given to the policy implications of the models. The present paper tries to indicate how the composition of exports i