bluehorizon2009-view-notes.pptVIP

Center for Strategy and Technology Blue Horizons III (2009) The Age of Surprise Implications of Exponential Technological Change on Air Force Strategy Through 2035 Colonel John Geis Purpose It’s sole purpose is to introduce a way of thinking about the future that will result in changing attitudes, priorities and expectations . . . This briefing is not asking for money, proposing new systems or attacking the way things have been done to date . . . Center for Strategy Technology  Air University What we do Assess strategic impact of rapidly accelerating technological change Blue Horizons Program A CSAF directed study on future strategy and technology to inform the debate on AF future thinking and investment Sponsors A8 AFRL Researchers Air War College Air Command and Staff Research Support AFRL Sandia National Lab Los Alamos National Lab The J Curve and Rapid Exponential Change The curve is typical of the effect of the insertion of new technology causing rapid exponential change Harsh Realities Why the Air Staff squelches these kinds of briefings “We’re at war – talk to us after the fight” “It’s all about the money – not enough for today…” “This is Next-War-itis writ large – need a grip on today” “This briefing is all Star Wars” Yet why it is critical to the Air Force Historic niche for the AF – see the future, innovate and capture the next technology wave Todays reality – an unsustainable “boots on the ground” strategy Tomorrow’s reality – radical change spawned by technology revolutions USAF Strategic Inflection Points Driver: Rapid Advances in Aeronautics Policy Option: Industrial Web Theory Driver: Smaller Nuclear Weapons, Guided Missiles Policy Option: Mutually Assured Destruction Drivers: Space Tech, Computing Policy Option: Coercion/Decapitation Driver: Rapid Tech Change Proliferation Overview Brief Introduction A8 Taskings for Blue Horizons 2007: Blue Horizons I Validate technology increasing at exponential rate Detail ramifications of exp