第3届中国经济学年会工商管理与管理经济学专题论文.doc

PAGE  PAGE 12 第三届中国经济学年会（2003）工商管理与管理经济学专题论文 基于非线性排序统计理论的人事甄选效用评价模型* 本文特别感谢浙江大学管理学院副院长王重鸣教授、贾生华教授，北京大学概率论统计系与金融数学系谢衷洁教授给予的帮助和支持。 陈 宇 峰 （中国人民大学经济学院，北京 100872） 摘要：传统人事甄选效用模型都是建立在对预测因子的平均效标值评价基础上的。本文试图论证，当录用人数有限时，如何运用非线性排序统计理论来解决平均效标值的数学期望、方差以及样本分布函数等一系列效用评价标准问题。同时，利用严格或近似结论来构建区间估计，这对人事甄选效用评价理论和实践起着至关重要的作用。为此，本文特别根据必威体育精装版理论研究设计出n，SR以及等72种不同取值情况下的排序统计表以作实践参考。 关键词：人事甄选 平均效标值 排序统计 The Model of Personnel Selection Utility Estimate Based on Order Statistics CHEN Yu-feng ( School of Economics, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872,China) Abstract: All of classical models for the utility of personnel selection are based on the average criterion score of the predictor-selected applicants. This paper tries to indicate how standard results from the theory on order statistics can be used to determine the expected values, the standard error and the sampling distribution of the average criterion score when a finite number of the employees are selected. Exact as well as approximate results are derived and it is shown how these results can be used to construct intervals that will contain, with a given probability，the average criterion score associated with a particular implementation of the personnel selection. These interval estimates are particularly helpful to the selection practitioner because they can be used to state the confidence level with the selection scenarios. At last, this paper especially draw up the table of order statistics for practice consultation from the new research, which is directed against 72 situations of different variances of n, SR and . Key words: Personnel Selection Average Criterion Scores Order Statistics 一、引言 人事甄选总是与面试、心理测试等一系列活动相联系，而由此得到的预测因子被认为与直接录用人员工作绩效相关联的（GatewoodField,1987）。单元预测模型是建立在对应于所有候选人的预测因子或若干个预测因子综合的基础上，而单元预测因子的效力毕竟有限，往往需要用多个预测因子来提高对工作绩效的预测能力和甄选决策质量。但在多甄选决策中，不同的预测因子将会在每个甄选阶段中产生。不同的样本数、不同性质的预测因子是否能真正地在下几轮甄选中产生效力，这是值得深究的关键所在。为了充分地综合单甄选和多甄选的优点，人事心理学家在50年前就已经开始发展修正模型（Brogden,1946;CronbachGlester, 1965;BoudreauBerger,1985;De