id中国城镇非住宅房地产投资与相关行业固定资产投资关系的实证研究.doc

中国城镇非住宅房地产投资与相关行业固定资产投资关系实证研究 张东 叶本圣2 吴波3 （1．中南财经政法大学房地产研究所，湖北武汉430074） （2．中南财经政法大学房地产研究所，湖北武汉430074） （3．中南财经政法大学房地产研究所，湖北武汉430074） 摘要：写字楼、商铺、酒店等非住宅房地产不仅与住宅具有紧密的内在联系，而且与诸多行业具有紧密的关联性，非住宅房地产投资不仅要考虑住宅投资的因素，也要考虑各相关行业固定资产投资的因素。显然，揭示非住宅房地产投资与相关行业固定资产投资的相关性，有利于非住宅房地产投资决策与调控的科学化。 国内外有关非住宅房地产投资的文献主要从商业地产角度展开，其它较多的是从区位理论的角度，通过分析房地产开发投资环境而展开；另外国内研究非住宅房地产投资的文献不多，专门针对非住宅房地产投资与相关行业固定资产投资相关性的实证研究文选更少见。本文试图依据非住宅房地产运行的行业关联性理论，建立非住宅房地产投资与若干行业固定资产投资存在显著相关关系的假设，并通过选择反映非住宅房地产投资及相关行业固定资产投资的指标，以中国国家和各地方统计局数据库有关数据为样本区间，运用相关数理模型，对这一假设进行计量实证研究。在此基础上，根据实证结果，并结合实际，提出有利于提高中国城镇非住宅房地产投资决策及其调控科学化的建议。 ? 关键词：非住宅房地产投资；相关行业固定资产投资；相关性 The positive research on the relationship between the investment about non-residential real estate in China urban and fixed assets in related industries ZHANG Dong1 YE Ben-sheng2 WU Bo3 (1.The institution of Real Estate,Zhongnan University of Economic and Law,Wuhan430074,China) (2. The institution of Real Estate,Zhongnan University of Economic and Law,Wuhan430074,China) (3. The institution of Real Estate,Zhongnan University of Economic and Law,Wuhan430074,China) Abstract:The non-residential real estate:office buildings, shops, hotels etc. doesnot only have internal relation with the residential, but also have the strong connection with many related industries. Investing on non-residential real estate, you will not only consider the factor of investment on residential, but also the factor of investment on fixed assets in the related industries. Abviously, revealing the correlation between the investment on non-residential real estate and fixed assets in related industries will contribute to the scientfic decision-making and regulation about the investment on non-residential real estate. The literature of home and abroad about investment on non-residential real estate mainly start from commercial real estate,the others mainly developed from Location theory, which centers about surroundings of exploitation of real estate; moreover, the literatu