Gray model on the incidence of typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever Forecast.doc

下载文档 降价啦

5
0
约8.92千字
约 8页
2017-05-13 发布于浙江
举报
版权申诉
保障服务

Gray model on the incidence of typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever Forecast.doc

1、本文档共8页，可阅读全部内容。
2、有哪些信誉好的足球投注网站（book118）网站文档一经付费（服务费），不意味着购买了该文档的版权，仅供个人/单位学习、研究之用，不得用于商业用途，未经授权，严禁复制、发行、汇编、翻译或者网络传播等，侵权必究。
3、本站所有内容均由合作方或网友上传，本站不对文档的完整性、权威性及其观点立场正确性做任何保证或承诺！文档内容仅供研究参考，付费前请自行鉴别。如您付费，意味着您自己接受本站规则且自行承担风险，本站不退款、不进行额外附加服务；查看《如何避免下载的几个坑》。如果您已付费下载过本站文档，您可以点击这里二次下载。
4、如文档侵犯商业秘密、侵犯著作权、侵犯人身权等，请点击“版权申诉”（推荐），也可以打举报电话：400-050-0827(电话支持时间：9:00-18:30)。

Gray model on the incidence of typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever Forecast

Gray model on the incidence of typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever Forecast Of: Li Jing Li Mei, Hong Xue Wang Peicheng Qiurui [Abstract Objective: To study the incidence of typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever law, predict the incidence of typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever, the health sector to develop appropriate theoretical basis for prevention and control measures. Methods: According to China from 2001 to 2007 data to establish the incidence of typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever GM (1,1) model, and predict the incidence of 2008,2009 and 2010. Results: After testing the model of high precision (C = 0.2889, P = 1.0000, MAPE = 8.30%), better prediction effect. Conclusion: predict the incidence of typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever decreased, but still continue to do the work of typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever prevention and control, to prevent its incidence increased. [Keywords: gray model; prediction; the incidence of typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever Typhoid and paratyphoid fever are acute intestinal infectious diseases, infectious disease law in our country belongs to Class B infectious diseases, the pathogens are Salmonella typhi, and paratyphoid A, B and C bacteria. In recent years, as the economy development and social improvement of health conditions, the incidence of typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever overall declining trend, but sporadic cases have occurred, some areas are still outbreaks. In this study of typhoid paratyphoid gray model to analyze the incidence of and projections for the health sector to develop appropriate preventive measures to provide a theoretical basis. 1 Data and methods 1.1 Source Data from the lt;lt;2009 China Health Statistics Yearbookgt;gt;, reliable data, see Table 1. 1.2 method [1,2] GM (1,1) dynamic model gray gray model is the most basic, the most widely used forecasting model, the model using original data generated through the accumulation of data obtained after modeling, the general form