世界顶级经济学家投资学课件.pdf

世界顶级经济学家投资学课件 —Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky 本资料源自公开出版物或相关院校内部 由复清发展金融考研咨询社编辑整理 Section 1 The Psychology of Preference Scientific American 264，PP 160－173 by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky content • 1.1 Overview • 1.2 Risk aversion and Risk-seeking • 1.3 Value function • 1.4 Decision weights vs probability • 1.5 Framing effect • 1.6 Reference point • 1.7 Regret • 1.8 Conclusion 1.1 Overview • When people make risky choices, they do not do so objectively. • Experiment: Broadway play • lost the ticket (paid $40): buy another one? • lost $40: Will you buy ticket? • Interpretation: different mental account • Discrepancies between subjective and objective conceptions of decisions • Examples: • threat of loss vs equivalent gain • Sensitvie: Difference between certainly and high probability • Insensitive :Difference between intermediate gradations of probability • Regret with a loss by action and that of inaction 1.2 risk aversion and risk-seeking • The origin of psychology of preference • Daniel Bernoulli (1738 ) discussed the characteristics of human preferences: risk aversion • Example: • option 1: a sure gain of $ 80 • Option 2: risky prospect • 85% winning $100,15% winning nothing • A choice is risk-averse if a certain outcome is preferred to a gamble with an equal or greater monetary expectation • Example: • Option 1: a sure loss of $80 • Option 2: a risky outcome • 85% losing $100 ,15% losing nothing • A choice is risk-seeking if a certain outcome is rejected in favor of a gamble with an equal or lower monetary expectation • Conclusion