北京地交会科特勒演讲稿.ppt

Kotler Marketing Group 科特勒咨询集团 Situation in World Real Estate 世界房地产业现状 The global real estate market is booming 全球地产市场正在飞速发展 There are different trends and issues in residential, office and commercial real estate 住宅楼，写字楼以及商用房产有着不同的发展趋势 There are differences in the developed markets and in emerging markets 发达国家的成熟市场与发展中国家的新兴市场是不同的 What does this mean for China? 这对中国意味着什么？ Developed Markets – Commercial成熟市场 – 商业地产 Too much capital is seeking too few good assets. 资本过剩，出色的投资项目十分贫乏。 U.S. retail real estate market is very hot in key locations, but only for institutional investors 美国零售地产市场在某些核心地域十分火热，但仅限于机构投资者 Assets are overvalued, returning only 7% CAP rate instead of historic 10% 资产估值过高，资本回报率已从10%降至7%。 But 7% is a better return than alternative investments in bonds and equities. 但7%的回报率仍较投资债券或股票更为优厚。 Institutional investors can bank on long term lease price increase to eventually reach a 9% return. 机构投资者期望通过长期租贷来提高其投资回报率达到9% 。 This is adequate for U.S. and European institutional investors, but inadequate for entrepreneur developers, who have a higher cost of capital . 这样的回报率对于机构投资者来说是丰厚的，但对于企业开发商来说就较为逊色，因为他们的资本成本相对较高。 Developed Markets – Commercial成熟市场 – 商业地产 New shopping centers in Class A locations are being built by institutional funds because of low interest rates, high retail remand by chains and high lease prices. 由于低利率，连锁店高额租价所带来的高还押，吸引许多机构投资者都在A级地段大手笔的修建新的购物中心。 Entrepreneur developers are out of the Class A market. They require far more than 7% because of higher cost of capital. 企业发展商离开了A级市场，由于高额资本成本，他们要求多于7%的回报率。 Independent retailers cannot afford lease costs 独立的零售商无法承担高额租金。 Retail rentals have jumped from $30-$40 a square foot to $80-$100 a square foot in high-end locations. 屹立于高端地段的零售商场租价已由每平米30 – 40 美元飙升至80 – 90美元 Major chains replacing independent retailers. 大型的连锁店已取代了独立零售商。 Vacancies are low because of strong retail market for chains 由于强势连锁市场的拉动，当前商业地产的空置率并不大。 Entrepreneur commercial developers are looking at emerging markets. 商用