核桃炭疽病空间分布格局及抽样技术.pdfVIP

·16· ForestPestandDiseaseMar． 2017No．2 核桃炭疽病空间分布格局及抽样技术 王清海1’2，刘幸红1’2，段春华1’2，张勇3，牛赡光1’2，朱文成1 (1．山东省林业科学研究院，山东济南250014；2．山东省林业外来有害生物防控工程技术研究中心，山东济南250014； 3．山东省果树研究所，山东泰安271018) 摘要：采取随机取样和1wao回归分析法研究核桃炭疽病痛果的空间分布型、抽样技术。结果表明， 核桃炭疽病病果的空间分布类型为聚集型分布，病果密度越大，聚集程度越高，分布的基本成分是 个体群，这种空间分布是由炭疽病致病茵自身的生物学特性与林间环境因素共同作用的结果。应 用1wao统计方法，确定了理论抽样数和序贯抽样模型。以病果率10％为防治阈值，置信水平为 1．96，确定防治上下限方程为瓦(n)=10n±13．46914n。 关键词：核桃炭疽病；空间分布型；抽样技术；1wao回归法；防治阈值 Patternofthe distributionand ofwalnutanthracnosefruits／WANG spatial samplingtechnique Provincial of Qinghai，eta1．(ShandongAcademyForestry，Ji’nan250014，China) kindof diseasein anthracnoseisa serious Chinawalnutorchardsandcausedlosses Abstract：Walnut up to50％．To outcontrol and distributionand tech— calTy effectivelytimely，thespatial patternsampling werestudied field random and1wao nique through．theinvestigationusing sampling regressionanalysis． The that ofdiseasefruitswas distribution．The resultshowedthe distribution spatial pattern aggregative increasedwiththeindividual individualwasthebasic intensity density．The group compo- aggregation nentinthedistribution．Theonfruitsisduetothe characteristicsof and aggregation biological pathogen factors．Atthesame theoretical numberand sam- environmental time，theoptimal sampling sequential modelweredetermined1wao thecontrolthresholdofdisesasedfruit piing by regressionanalysis．When rate the levelwas