2015_2016工业产能过剩情况的调查研究.pdf

中国人民银行工作论文 No.2015/13 PBC Working Paper No.2015/13 2015 年12 月11 日 December 11,2015 对当前工业企业产能过剩情况的调查研究 ——基于江苏省696 户工业企业的实证分析 王海慧 孙小光1 摘要：本文在梳理国内外产能过剩判断标准的基础上，结合江苏省696 户工业企 业产能利用情况调查数据和相关统计数据进行综合分析，显示近年江苏省工业企 业产能利用率明显下降，目前产能过剩仍较为突出，且绝大多数企业预期产能利 用率恢复正常仍需较长一段时间。但一些比较受关注的产能过剩重点行业也存在 分化。近两年来，在钢铁、水泥等传统行业产能利用率继续走低的同时，光伏、 风电设备制造等新兴行业产能调整初显成效，产能利用率较前几年有所回升。在 调查基础上，本文进一步分析了产能过剩产生的原因及风险，并提出了化解产能 过剩的一些建议。 Abstract: The paper presents the survey result of the overcapacity situation in 696 industrial enterprises in Jiangsu province. According to the survey, the capacity utilization rate of these industrial enterprises in Jiangsu province has decreased remarkably in recent years. Most of the industrial enterprises surveyed expect it will take some time for capacity utilization to normalize. However, there is also a diverging trend among firms in different industries. While capacity utilization in traditional sectors such as iron, steel and cement is low, some emerging sectors such as solar PV and wind power equipment manufacturing have shown improvement after structural adjustments in recent years. This paper also looks into the causes of overcapacity and puts forward some policy recommendations. 关键词： 工业企业；产能过剩；调查 声明：中国人民银行工作论文发表人民银行系统工作人员的研究成果，以利于开展学术交 流与研讨。论文内容仅代表作者个人学术观点，不代表人民银行。如需引用，请注明来源 为《中国人民银行工作论文》。 Disclaimer: The Working Paper Series of the Peoples Bank of China (PBC) publishes research reports written by staff members of the PBC, in order to facilitate scholarly exchanges. The views of these reports are those of the authors and do not represent the PBC. For any quotations from these reports, please state that the source is PBC working paper series. 1 王海慧，中国人民银行南京分行，邮箱：wanghh0106@；孙小光，中国人