基于数字滑坡技术的暴雨滑坡泥石流预警模型研究.doc

基于数字滑坡技术的暴雨滑坡、泥石流预警 王治华1，郭兆成1，杜明亮1　程尊兰2 1.中国国土资源航空物探遥感中心，北京，100083； 2.中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所，成都，610041 E-mail: wzh@agrs.cn 摘 要：我国学者在暴雨滑坡、泥石流预测预报研究领域取得的成果为采用数字滑坡技术进行暴雨滑坡、泥石流预警monitoring and early warning of rainstorm induced landslide and debris flow based on digital landslide technology Wang Zhihua1, Guo Zhaocheng2, Du Mingliang1 Cheng Zunlan2 1. China Aero Geophysical Survey Remote Sensing Center for Land and Resources, Beijing, 100083. 2. Chengdu Institute of mountain Hazards and Environment, CAS; Chengdu,610041. Abstract: Chinese research on the rainstorm induced landslide and debris flow forecast have promoted the digital landslide technology to be applied for landslide, debris flow motoring and early warning. There are three basic principles of modeling for rainstorm induced landslide, debris flow monitoring and early warning based on digital landslide technology. The primary is the modeling must be abided by the geology principles of landslide and debris flow. Moreover, the actual situation of the study area must be taken into account during modeling. And finally, the model factors selected is limited by remote sensing methods. According to the three principles, the modeling progress divided into six steps: ①establish the conceptual model in view of physical relationship between geological environment and rainfall conditions of landslide and debris flow; ②Define the essential geological environment factors and establish the hazard evaluation expression; ③Find some index to impress moderately the essential geological environmental factors; ④Determine the weight of indexes according to disasters status and environmental characteristics of the study area ; ⑤Define the critical value for rainfall; ⑥Building mathematical expression. Key words: Rainstorm, landslide, debris flow, digital landslide technology, early warning model 前言 暴雨滑坡、泥石流预警暴雨滑坡、泥石流预测预报、泥石流预滑坡、泥石流预警滑坡、泥石流预警滑坡、泥石流预警滑坡、泥石流预警滑坡、泥石流预警、监测滑坡、泥石流泥石流是山区沟谷地表松散固体物质在水动力作用下形成固液物质混合集中快速流动并堆积的一种突发性的自然灾害。预警、监测预警、监测