TED演讲【了解中国的崛起】20160129【内含中英文对照演讲稿】.pdf

The world is changing with really remarkable speed. If you look at the chart at the top here, youll see that in 2025, these Goldman Sachs projections suggest that the Chinese economy will be almost the same size as the American economy. And if you look at the chart for 2050, its projected that the Chinese economy will be twice the size of the American economy, and the Indian economy will be almost the same size as the American economy. And we should bear in mind here that these projections were drawn up before the Western financial crisis. 世界正在 以惊人的速度飞快得改变着。 如果你看着这上方的图表， 你会看到在2025 年， 高盛投资公司的这些预测 表明中国经济规模 会和美国经济几乎相当。 如果看 2050 年的 图表，预测表明中国经济规模 将会是美国经济的两倍，印度的经济规模将会和 美国的经 济几乎持平。 在这里，我们应该记住 这些预测是在 西方经济危机之前做出的。 A couple of weeks ago, I was looking at the latest projection by BNP Paribas for when China will have a larger economy than the United States. Goldman Sachs projected 2027. The post-crisis projection is 2020. Thats just a decade away. China is going to change the world in two fundamental respects. First of all, its a huge developing country with a population of 1.3 billion people, which has been growing for over 30 years at around 10 percent a year. 几周前， 我查看法国巴黎银行的 最近预测， 中国在什么时候 会超越美国经济， 成为第 一大经济体。 高盛投资公司预测2027 年。 危机过后的预测 是2020 年。 这也不过只有 10 年的光景。 中国将在两个基本方面上 改变世界。 首先， 中国是一个幅员广大的发展 中国家 它有13 亿人口， 在过去30 年间 它以每年10%左右的经济增长率发展。 And within a decade, it will have the largest economy in the world. Never before in the modern era has the largest economy in the world been that of a developing country, rather than a developed country. Secondly, for the first time in the modern era, the dominant country in the world -- which I think is what China will become -- will be not from the West and from very, very different civilizational roots. 在未来10 年间，它会有世界上最大的经济体。在世界现代史中，以前从来都是发达国家 还 没有一个发展中的国家 变成了世界上 最大的经济体。 第二， 在现代史中第一次 在世界 上， 我认为中国会变成大国， 它有别于西方国家 而它是从非常，非常不同的文明根源发 展起的大国。 Now, I know its a widespread assumption in the West that as countries moderni