中国的汇率制度选择.pdf

Exchange Rate Regime Choices for China Dr. Xiaoping Xu, Huazhong University of Science Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, P.R. China ABSTRACT What exchange rate regimes should China adopt in the 21st century? This paper analyzes some different exchange rate regime choices for China’s economy. It indicates that in China’s case, a fixed exchange rate regime can not mitigate both real and financial economic shocks in the long run; a complete floating exchange rate regime is not appropriate for China either because free movements of international capital and floating exchange rates are basically incompatible in China. The conclusion that flows from this paper is that the future choice for China’s exchange rate regime is a floating rate within a band system. INTRODUCTION It is an astonishing fact that all the massive crises of the past ten years—the really big ones –- have been associated with the collapse of formally fixed or quasi-fixed exchange rate systems: Mexico in 1994; the three Asian IMF program countries of Thailand, Indonesia, and Korea; Russia in 1998, in many ways the most consequential of the crises for the rest of the world; and Brazil in 1998 and 1999. These crises offer strong evidence about the role of exchange rate systems (Fischer, 2000). So rethinking the Chinese exchange rate regime choices is of great importance now. Since October 1987, the IMF has classified China as having a managed floating exchange rate regime, which is de facto peg arrangements under managed floating. China has successfully maintained its exchange rate stability for over a decade even during the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997, with the assistance of capital controls, providing an important element of stability in the region